Step up to the plate in Afghanistan
India can invest in developing the nation’s infrastructure and help strengthen democracy
President Donald Trump’s Afghan policy announced last month has been widely welcomed in Afghanistan and universally reviled in Pakistan. It was most unusual for a US president to so directly call a country, other than the old ‘axis of evil’ (Iran, North Korea and Saddam’s Iraq), as he did referring to Pakistan as a country giving ‘safe haven to agents of chaos, violence, and terror.’ Significantly the only other country mentioned in his speech, but this time positively, was India, which he declared as a key partner of the USA and with who strategic partnership would be further developed. He appreciated India’s important contribution to stability in Afghanistan and called upon it to do more in the area of economic assistance and development.
The Government of India would obviously decide on whether to step up its involvement in Afghanistan based on its own assessment of what is in the country’s national interests, and not just because Trump is asking it to do more. That said, the public articulation of the US’ disenchantment with Pakistan does represent an opportunity of doing more in Afghanistan since it ties in with India’s own interest in strengthening the Afghan government. Further, Trump has repeated his AfPak formulation at the UN last week, which did not get much traction as it was drowned out what he said on North Korea. Defence secretary James Mattis and Trump’s chief of staff John Kelley are from the US army and are aware of the considerable negative feedback about Pakistan’s use of terrorist proxies in Afghanistan from US army officers. Kelley is a serving general and, in fact lost his son in action in Afghanistan. Further Trump’s indications, repeated several times in his speech, that the US army field commanders would have necessary freedom of action leaves open the possibility of cross-border action in trying to liquidate the Taliban’s safe havens in Pakistan.
Stabilising Afghanistan is in India’s national interest. The inability of governance institutions to deliver services and justice at minimum levels seriously weakens Afghanistan’s abilities to fight terrorism. Such weaknesses has adversely impacted economic growth and employment generation. It is in these two fields of governance and economic growth that India can add substantial value; assistance in security should necessarily be limited to training, stepped up in numbers no doubt, and supply of equipment.
Post-2001, western donors parcelled out the job of development of different government functions to specific countries. So one country took up the job of setting up the police, another of justice, yet another of counter-narcotics and so on. The context in which governance institutions in Europe and North America function are totally alien to Afghanistan. Consequently these efforts have substantially failed. Fortunately, the country’s own systems have mostly survived the decades of conflict, albeit at low levels. There is a serious need for rehabilitation and upgradation, but not of replacement.
Representing the United Nations in donor meetings with Afghan ministries, I was frequently asked to speak of the Indian experience as it was seen by the Afghans as most relevant. Fortunately, Government of India partnered with UNDP and deputed Indian civil servants in different ministries. A number of these experts deputed were able to develop better decision-making capabilities unlike most western experts, who besides were paid in multiples of what it cost to deploy Indians. The Indians focussed on improving office processing and develop analytic skills. A similar programme, taking into account the experience of the previous programme, would add value and strengthen the perception that India acts in Afghanistan’s interests rather than pursue some other agenda.
The recent announcement that India would finance 116 high impact projects spread over 31 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces is also seen very positively. Hundreds of Afghan communities have benefitted from India’s Small Development Projects (SDP) programme. These have led to the creation of community assets like culverts over streams, minor irrigation works, classrooms etc. While important and locally useful, their contribution to sustainable economic growth is minimal.
Afghanistan’s irrigation potential is largely untapped. Indian assistance in the Salma dam was highly appreciated and the locals had renamed it as the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam. The third area where India could step up its involvement is in creating transit and related networks.
India has a vital stake in stabilising Afghanistan, which would necessitate strengthening its democratic institutions. The Afghan State, while legitimate in the eyes of the Afghan people, lacks credibility. Any steps that help increase its credibility would facilitate its efforts to counter negative external actors and stabilise the situation. India as an emerging leading power must step up its efforts. The Trump denouement creates a window that must be utilised.