Dust will give way to a new equilibrium

On the other side of the world, the Middle Kingdom was integrating political thought with market economics, which produced a winning formula of accelerated growth and shifted the fulcrum of industrial production from the west to east. This was done slowly and steadily as Deng Xiaoping famously said “Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile. Never take the lead, but aim to do something big. “So while the world celebrated the fall of communism and reworked a new world order, China announced itself on the stage of world economics – soon to be numero one – a position it has held ever since.

However, trouble was brewing in the backyard of globalisation. Marginalized nations/ societies who couldn’t jump on the bandwagon of economic success turned to religion and fundamentalism to provide an alternate philosophy of governance. Poverty and deprivation was attributed to an unfair and immoral world order. This brought up another global confrontation with terrifying implications. Terror became the new weapon and wars were now waged in schools, streets, public places. The aim to establish a new religious order which would be a solution for all social and economic problems.

The 21st century has seen financial deregulation to the extreme of cryptocurrency blockchains; amalgamation of technology in hardware applications through Internet of Things (IOT) and 3D printing; and freedom of speech and expression through the Internet (incidentally the most democratic forum today). It is an exciting place to be where even ‘disruption’ is associated with positive economic connotations. However, inequitable global growth and the rise of religious strife has led to many blaming globalisation for the ills of society today and the rapid rise of few nation states (at the cost of others?) has led to introspection for solutions.

Hence, this may be one of the reasons for rising nationalism sweeping the globe. Philippines, Japan, India, UK and USA, to name a few, have ushered in governments which are willing to exit existing global structures and institutions and rework a new order which keeps their country at the centre of any new arrangement. China has taken the lead and is aggressively pursuing (and persuading) the Belt and Road Intiative (BRI) while the new administration in US is considering reworking existing partnerships and immigration rules to keep up to its promise of “America First”.

India has also ushered in reforms on an unprecedented scale in terms of magnitude and speed. The demeonetisation of specified currency denominations; the promotion of digital transactions; the “Make in India” campaign; cooperative federal indirect tax reforms; forging new regional and global partnerships and commitment to global pacts including environment sends out a clear signal of its true potential, self interests being paramount and at the same time emphasizing a renewed engagement with the global system.

Any change and realignment in the world order evokes panic amongst those who have become used to their comfort zones. Hence, the sharp schisms we see in various discussion forums. Many are celebrating this neo-nationalism phenomenon while others are gloomily predicting the end of globalisation and beginning of chaos. Gradually, the dust will settle and a new equilibrium will be found. Unlike previous times, the power of technology and accessibility of information will ensure that people are well informed. The challenge for governments will be to meet soaring expectations and thus will drive a hard bargain while getting the best out of globalization.

In a way, this again is not a bad thing. It will mean more innovation and creativity, efficient policy planning, optimum allocation of resources and more robust delivery systems.

While the obvious emphasis will be to accelerate growth and increase wealth the endeavour should also be towards equitable sustained development so that the “country first” policy does not end up creating fortified utopian islands surrounded by oceans of gloom and despair. That is why reforms in health and education should occupy a pivotal place in the system of governance.

Political parties in developing nations are gradually understanding the potential and are reaping rich political dividend from these sectors, once they have been given more attention, and resources.

There can be no better substitute to a healthy and educated mind in nation building. Out of pocket expenditure in health should be substituted to the maximum, by basic, efficient and inexpensive health delivery while education should result in vocational and job worthiness and not merely unemployed educated.