BJP’s K’taka calculation: The 2013 arithmetic and return of 2 leaders
NEWDELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) believes it can stop the Congress from winning a majority in the Karnataka assembly election next month and emerge much stronger than it did in 2013 because of the return of two senior leaders, two leading party politicians said. The electoral ‘arithmetic’ now weighs in the BJP’s favour, they said.
Former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa and former state minister B Sreeramulu returned to the BJP in 2014 and have been fielded in the assembly elections this time as BJP candidates. Both are members of Parliament at present. Yeddyurappa led the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and Sreeramulu the Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress (BSR Congess) in the 2013 election won by the Congress party.
The arithmetic in question is based on a seat-by-seat analysis of 2013 assembly election results. This shows that the two leaders, who left the BJP in 2012, inflicted severe damage on the BJP, helped unseat it from power and brought down its tally to 40 seats in 224-member assembly. The BJP could have won at least 68 seats — 28 more from its actual tally — had it received the votes the KGP won. Such a situation would have stopped the Congress short of a majority, bringing its tally from 122 to 100 seats.
The KJP won six seats and put together, the BJP’s tally could have gone up to 74. If votes won by BSR Congress were added, its tally would have reached 80.
“These two leaders were responsible, to a great extent, for the BJP’s defeat in the last election,” says Harish Ramaswamy, a political science professor in Karnataka University, Dharwad.
“Two elections are different. But, BSY and Sreeramulu add strength to the party. The BJP benefitted in the Lok Sabha election
with their return,” a BJP general secretary said on condition of anonymity.
A separate analysis of the 2014 Lok Sabha results shows that BJP won 133 assembly segments in Karnataka, more than the 76 won by the Congress and 15 by the Janata Dal (Secular) of HD Kumaraswamy. While Karnataka remains a three-cornered contest, like it was in 2013 and 2014, analysts say the BJP cannot be sure of victory with the return of the two leaders. “There is a delay on the part of the BJP to
take on Sidddaramaiah on several governance issues. The BJP is not as vibrant as it was in 2014 or before,” Ramaswamy said.
“Even there is no clarity how the Lingayats, Karnataka’s most dominant community, are going to respond to the Congress government’s bid to grant them a separate religion status.”
Another BJP office bearer said party president Amit Shah had sent out a clear signal to state leaders that they need to remain united and avoid public feuds.