The BJP’s trump card in Kerala?

Sabarimala may help the party finally breach the elusive state

Will the Sabarimala issue be the BJP’s Ayodhya in Kerala, its beachhead in a once impregnable electoral landscape? The Supreme Court’s logic of constitutional rights prevailing over tradition is unassailable, but equally clear is the fact that the issue of the entry of women of all ages into the shrine has given the BJP and its political parent the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a strong issue to capitalise on and create a Hindu coalition.

The end is, of course, votes and seats, which have been rare to come by for the party in the state. The RSS has a massive presence in Kerala (and for years) but this has not translated into votes so far due to the fact that the state’s main political formations have managed to capture the loyalties of different communities. The BJP’s gambit is to exploit religious sentiments among the state’s Hindus, who account for 55% of the population. Already, in recently held civic polls, the party has registered some gains. It also enjoys much more brand recognition than ever before. Finally, the BJP has attempted to leverage the Nair community’s support for the RSS and projected itself as a possible alternative to the main political formations in the state. It is worth remembering that the Sabarimala protests were largely led by the upper caste Nairs. Still, much of the blame for things spinning out of control must go to the Pinarayi Vijayan government, which went headlong into a confrontation with protesters. The resultant violence was cleverly played by the RSS as being the work of a Godless party demeaning the Hindu faith. The inability of the 5,000 RSS shakhas across the state to help the BJP get seats so far has also been due the unique religious demography of the state. The Hindus are spread right across but amid strong Muslim and Christian populations.

The controversy is a godsend for the RSS, which has never had an emotive issue to work with in the state.While it may be premature to say that the BJP will gain seats, there is no doubt that this issue will improve its vote share. The BJP’s problem is that it does not have charismatic state leaders and will have to rely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to mount the challenge.