In 20 years, Arctic summers likely to be ice-free: Study
LONDON: The Arctic Ocean could experience ice-free summers within the next 20 years - much earlier than previously predicted - unless human greenhouse gas emissions are greatly reduced, a study warns.
Computer models predict climate change will cause the Arctic to be nearly free of sea ice during the summer by the middle of this century, due to a natural, longterm warming phase in the tropical Pacific, in addition to the human-caused warming.
However, a closer examination of long-term temperature cycles in the tropical Pacific points towards an ice-free Arctic in September, the month with the least sea ice, on the earlier side of forecasts, according to the research published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters.
“The trajectory is towards becoming ice-free in the summer, but there is uncertainty as to when that’s going to occur,” said James Screen, an associate professor at the University of Exeter in the UK.
There are different climate models used by researchers to predict when the first ice-free Arctic September will occur.
Most models project there will fewer than one million square kilometres of sea ice around the middle of this century.
The climate model used in the new study predicts an ice-free Arctic summer sometime between 2030 and 2050, if greenhouse gases continue to rise.