India’s approach in ODIs boring but best one to win World Cup
The India squad for the ODI series against Australia contains a few notable selections. Dinesh Karthik has been dropped while Rishabh Pant and KL Rahul have been reintroduced, the latter following his suspension due to inappropriate comments.
Having just turned Australia over in every format, away from home, the hosts clearly start as strong favourites and could reasonably expect to win all the matches notwithstanding the T20 series loss this week. However, they still have to solve the nagging question of who to bat in the middle order.
India have a relatively unique problem, because two of their top three are hall-of-famer ODI players. Far more than most players in history, Rohit and Kohli will get the job done.
Thus, when building the rest of the side, there is central tension between the two main options - picking players suited to recovering from a rare but potentially fatal top-order collapse, or picking players suited to exploding from the base laid by that stellar top-order. In many ways it’s a choice between preparing for the best, or preparing for the worst?
DHONI’S EXPERIENCE
Currently, they seem to be doing the latter. The experience of MS Dhoni and (to a lesser extent) Ambati Rayudu is there to shore up against collapses. While both are capable of scoring briskly, they are not archetypal modern finishers - and it’s reflected in the way India score at the death. Since the start of 2018, India have scored at 6.97 runs per over in the last 10 overs of ODI innings; six of their World Cup competitors have scored more quickly in that period. It isn’t a fatal flaw in Kohli’s side by any means, but it is a peculiar quirk for a team that dominates so completely in all other phases of the game. What’s more, this is a nation that hosts the biggest T20 league in the world, and has done for over a decade, and yet it is one seemingly incapable of pure powerhitting in the latter stages, the most obviously transferable skill from T20 to ODIs. India’s middle-order batsmen are the fourth slowest in the world, but they’re the third most solid. It is all rather counterintuitive.
FIVE-BOWLER TACTIC
What’s more, it isn’t structural - this lack of flourish is not because India are filling their side with bowlers at the expense of batting depth. India have been pretty consistent in their reluctance to fill the team with bowling options. Since the start of 2018, their ‘sixth’ bowler has bowled just 16 deliveries per ODI, the lowest for any team involved in the upcoming World Cup. Kohli and the selectors have tended to trust in five frontline bowling options and sneak through with a few overs from part-timers. It is a tactic which has served them well, and they are unlikely to change it.
So, amid all the constant chopping and changing in that middle order, there is a point being missed. India have shown no inclination to move away from this current tactic. They are committed to it.
As a result, the correct players to select, from No.4 to No.7, are Rayudu, Karthik, Dhoni and Hardik. The former three have the highest dismissal rates of the established contenders (see graph). Hardik gives them the fifth bowling option. India don’t want more than five bowling options. They are top-heavy with genius and seem reluctant to embrace the freedom this gives them. They prefer to insure against its failure.
Of course, this isn’t the correct team to select. To be frank, it is a joyless, conservative way of approaching a format that has of late been a showcase for the best of the skills we have in the modern game. It is heading out for a walk wearing four raincoats at once, because you’ve heard it may pour down later. But it is better to have a plan, regardless of its inherent quality. India are more likely to win the
World Cup by fully embracing their inherent conservatism, than by partially moving away from it.