Will the triangular contest work to BJP’s advantage?
Traditionally, a divided opposition has worked to give the ruling party an edge
LUCKNOW:: The stage is set for a fierce triangular contest on majority of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh -- the largest state in the country that takes pride in the crucial role it plays in electing the winning party at the Centre.
As the ruling party zealously launches its campaign to retain the state that gave it a windfall of support in 2014 – 71 out of 80 seats -- the pertinent question in discussion is, ‘Will the BJP gain from a triangular contest?’ Traditionally, a divided opposition has worked to the ruling party’s advantage as the opponents share the anti-votes. Thus, the more the opponents in the fray, the better it is for the party in power.
Before the 1990s, when Congress consecutively ruled the state since Independence, the differences among the socialist parties proved to be beneficial.
As and when they united – 1969 (Bhartiya Lok Dal), 1977 (Janata Party) and 1989 (Janata Dal) -- Congress lost the battle.
Ideally the BJP would have preferred a multi-cornered contest like in 2014 when SP, BSP, Congress and other parties independently contested the election as they fought more to protect their own turf than defeating the BJP.
However, after their humiliating defeat, successively in 2014 general elections and 2017 state assembly elections, the SP and BSP realised the need to first checkmate the winning spree of the BJP if they had to survive in the state politics.
The two parties came together, shedding much of their earlier animosity, also because of the pressure from their own vote banks. But despite backroom efforts of many opposition parties to build a grand alliance, they failed for various reasons.
While SP-BSP were unwilling to accept the Congress demand for 20-odd seats, the Congress leadership felt that the party will lose the state forever if it accepted to play a very small partner in the alliance. Their argument being that at the national level they will fight the NDA and not the regional parties. Secondly, the Congress is concentrating on 2022 assembly elections more than the 2019 polls as in private they do concede the poor health of the party.
Thus it will largely be a contest between SP-BSP-RLD combine, the BJP and its allies and the Congress and its small allies. Other smaller parties, even the one led by Shivpal Singh Yadav, will play spoilsport more than being winners in their constituencies of influence.
WHO IS SAYING WHAT!
A Congress leader, while admitting that a triangular contest may turn to BJP’s advantage, hoped, “The opposition parties could still come to some tactical understanding on about a dozen odd seats. In fact, Akhilesh Yadav was willing for an alliance with the Congress but its poll partner BSP threw a spanner, indirectly helping the BJP.”
BJP leader Chandra Mohan dismissed the theory of divided opposition helping the ruling party and said, “Our strength is the charismatic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the dedication of our booth presidents.”
SP spokesman Abdul Hafiz Gandhi, however, was of the view that the SP-BSP-RLD combine represented the larger section of the electorate in UP and was unbeatable. This alliance has come from the rank and file as the people wanted it and will firmly back, and vote for the alliance. “In this scenario, Congress will not be able to divide our votes. Whatever Congress gains in terms of vote percentage, it will be from BJP’s kitty. It will be so because in some particular sections of society the Congress and BJP voters are same,” he said. Political expert Badri Narain says, “Yes, it could work to BJP’s advantage as Congress could divide Muslim votes. But it will also hurt the BJP as Congress will take away their Brahmin votes.”
HOW DIVISION OF OPPOSITION VOTES HELPED BJP IN 2014
Let’s take Saharanpur Lok Sabha constituency that BJP won by 65,090 votes. The runner up was Congress. Here while BJP polled 39.59 percent votes, the runner up polled 34.14 percent votes. Then BSP polled 19.67 percent and the SP 4.42 percent. Both Congress and SP had fielded Muslim candidates.
Sambhal is another constituency in West UP where both SP and BSP fielded Muslim candidates, that cut into each other’s votes, helping the BJP win the seat with a slender margin of 5174 votes only.
The BJP polled 34.08 percent votes, SP 33.59 percent and BSP 23.90 percent votes.
A fierce contest between SP and BSP helped BJP win Ghazipur in east UP by a margin of 32,542 votes. While BJP polled 31.11 percent votes, SP and BSP polled 27.82 and 24.49 percent votes.
If you look at the overall results, the SP-BSP-RLD together polled about 44 percent votes, which was more than the BJP’s 42.63 percent.
ELECTIONS ARE NOT MERE MATHEMATICS
Yes, addition of poll percentage does not
›
Yes, it could work to BJP’s advantage as Congress could divide Muslim votes. But it will also hurt the BJP as Congress will take away their Brahmin votes BADRI NARAIN, Political expert
necessarily mean the alliance can easily trounce the BJP, which is still riding the Modi wave, though much weaker than 2014.
The overnight bonhomie between estranged leaders does not necessarily translate into votes, especially when they represent castes locked in traditional social and political enmity.
Thus much would depend on Akhilesh, Mayawati and Jayant Choudhury to convince their cadres to get their votes transferred to each other.
Besides homework, the three will have to send a message through joint rallies and workers meetings. To their advantage the communities feeling marginalized in the current dispensation are in a mood to support the alliance.
The flip side, as a senior leader said, is: “The failure of the non-BJP parties to strike an alliance for the forthcoming elections has once again triggered the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”