Numbers matter the most in a democracy

‘D emocracy is a form of governance in which we only count, do not weigh’.

It is the numbers that matter the most in the universal adult franchise model of democracy, that magic number being 273 for Indian parliament.

We therefore wonder who, in a practically two-party system of India, whether the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), will deliver that magic number in forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

The three broad factors –the masses’ perception with respect to promiseachievement ratio of the current government, leadership, and the nature of coalition of contesting parties -- have in the past dictated the electorate results in India.

Analyses of these factors may offer some resolve to the classical Indian parliamentary pre-election conundrum -NDA or UPA?

I quote from NDA’s manifesto of 2014 elections -- “build a modern, prosperous and vibrant India, based on our ethos and values”.

What are the hits and misses? Of course the NDA government started several micro (such as Mudra scheme, Atal Pension Yojana, Jan DhanYojana) and macro (Make in India, Digital India, Skill India, Swacch Bharat) schemes targeting inclusive growth.

NDA definitely seems to have learnt from failed India Shining campaign. Success or failure of these schemes are yet to materialise, thus cannot be commented upon fully. And as usual, how much of these schemes sailed through complicated Indian bureaucracy and local political institutions remain a question.

Further, while, the stances such as surgical strike, GST, and demonetisation remain controversial and opaque with respect to intention, implementation, and results, they indicate capacity of the current NDA government to take tough decisions.

Finally, the shape of masses’ perception with respect to NDA’s leadership -whether charismatic (benefitting others) or narcissistic (benefitting self) -also may be crucial determinant of their possible re-entry into parliament as victors.

While the NDA has a comparatively limited history, the Indian National Congress (INC)-led UPA has to deal with significant past in the forthcoming election.

We can comfortably recall the factors that caused the uprooting of UPA in the last Lok Sabha elections. Indecisive and aging leadership, corrupt and extractive political and bureaucratic institutions, and opaque coalitions were among the major factors resulted in an utterly embarrassing 44 seats for INC-the chieftain of UPA.

Whether UPA has taken care of those factors should largely determine their status in Indian parliament after the elections.

While UPA still hinges their hopes on various Gandhis, several young leaders such as Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia, and Deepender Hooda have emerged in grandiosity. This young leadership has contributed magnificently in recent state elections, some of them even surprised Indian polity. Whether voters will heed youth and energy of those young leaders or to their DNA, is something to watch for.

UPA has been consolidating opposition by leveraging on anti-incumbency and identity crises among leaders from various diverse local and national parties. Gigantic and ambitious yet diverse coalitions are therefore evident. Archrivals have come together. Whether such coalitions pay off, we don’t know.

While NDA has the advantage of decisive leadership and limited past, UPA has voluminous reach. Another couple of weeks, we will know.