A battle of narratives and numbers in state
Oppn is confident of taking on BJP, which won 12 of the 14 seats in 2014. The ruling party is banking on anti-conversion laws, welfare schemes
About 20 people, four of them women, wait at the Daltonganj circuit house to meet Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Hemant Soren. It is around 10 pm and the visitors, all belonging to the Paharia tribe, have a long list of complaints to share with the former chief minister.
They say they have not received the rural job scheme payout for several months and that the doorstep delivery of grains has not happened as promised. These deliveries were promised by the government - it worked in some areas, but complaints about irregular distribution are rampant, they say.
“We could live a good life,” an elderly woman tells Soren in an anxious voice. “I want a better future for the next generation.”
“The government has failed them,” Soren said later, as he settled down after campaigning in the arid Palamu region where his party has never had a toehold. “Ranchi and Delhi, both are clueless about the hardship these people face.”
A few hours ago, his rally passed through the Patan block in Daltonganj, and speakers tried to warm up the crowd with the promise of change that Soren could bring. But not everyone was interested.
“[Prime Minister Narendra] Modi has at least taken strong decisions,” said Rajesh Prakash, who owns a salon at a local market. “His rivals have no track record of governance. Rahul [Gandhi, Congress president] can never be a match for Modi.”
The political landscape of Jharkhand is laid out between these competing narratives. The mineral-rich state has 14 seats, out of which 12 went to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2014. It also won the state assembly elections the same year. Will it be able to replicate the performance yet again? Opinions are divided.
VOICES OF DISCONTENT
Next to Prakash’s shop in Patan is a tea stall where customers, mostly Yadavs and Kurmis (both OBC castes), find fault with Modi’s decision to give 10% reservation to economically weak “upper castes” in jobs and education. “Do Brahmins and Thakurs need reservation?” argued Sanjay Yadav, 25, who is preparing for banking examinations. Two others in the crowd admit that poor people exist among upper castes, but insist that Modi could have done without upper caste reservation.
There is no anger as such but the disquiet is palpable. The National Family Health Survey 2015-16 pegs the Scheduled Tribe (ST) population of Jharkhand at 28%, OBC at 46% and Scheduled Caste (SC) at 14%. In terms of religion, as per the 2011 Census, Muslims and Christians account for 20% of Jharkhand’s population.
“The BJP will have to play its reservation card very safely,” political analyst Vidya Bhushan Mishra argued. “The BJP could do so well in 2014 because it created a rainbow social alliance.”
Now, there is perceived anger among the tribes over the Raghubar Das government’s move to tweak the tenancy act that puts curbs on the sale and purchase of tribal lands.
“Land is a sensitive issue in Jharkhand and in scheduled areas, there is a feeling that local government has worked against their interest,” said Sudhir Pal, Jharkhand coordinator of the Association for Democratic Reforms.
“It appeared to a large section of people here that the government wanted to dilute provisions to make provisions for the ‘outsiders’ to buy land,” Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) [JVM(P)] chief Babulal Marandi said.
UNITED OPPOSITION
Marandi is Jharkhand’s first chief minister who founded the JVM (P) in 2006 after snapping ties with the BJP. His party is part of the opposition alliance that also includes the JMM, the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). As part of the deal, the Congress is contesting seven seats, the JMM four, the JVM (P) two and the RJD one.
Marandi claims a double anti-incumbency is working against the BJP in Jharkhand.
“Chief minister Raghubar Das is unpopular among the masses and BJP workers,” he said. “Then you have unfulfilled promises of the Narendra Modi government.”
Soren adds, “We got defeated in 2014 because split in the Opposition vote. The BJP cannot take on a united Opposition.”
Mathematically, a united Opposition can pose a strong challenge to the BJP. For example, in Giridih, the BJP’s Ravindra Kumar Pandey defeated the JMM’s Jagranath Mahto with a margin of 40,313 votes, while the JVM (P)’s Saba Ahmed polled 57,380 votes.
In Godda, Nishikant Dubey of the BJP defeated Congress’s Furkan Ansari by 60,682 votes while the JVM (P)’s Pradeep Yadav polled 193,506 votes. In both cases, the votes polled by the JVM (P) were higher than the BJP’s winning margin. Khunti, Kodarma, Singhbhum -- all held by the BJP – also witnessed close contests.
The Congress is upbeat. “We improved our vote share by 12% in the recent municipal elections,” said RPN Singh, Congress general secretary incharge of Jharkhand. “Our strength has improved, but we want to create an alliance of all opposition parties to avoid a split in the votes.”
The JMM and the Congress had an alliance in 2014. The Congress won none of the nine seats it fought, while the JMM emerged victorious in two of the four.
WHAT COULD WORK FOR BJP
The BJP is pinning its hopes on three factors. First, with a strong anti-conversion law, it hopes to drive a wedge between the tribes who converted to Christianity and the other tribespeople. “The nonconverted tribals are happy with such a bold move for the first time in the state,” a close aide of the chief minister said on condition of anonymity.
The tribal loyalty has largely remained with the JMM in Santhal Parganas and with the Congress in Kolhan region. “If we are able to wean away even a section of the tribal votes, we will repeat the 2014 performance,” the aide said. The CM, he said, has visited the Santhal region, a bastion of the JMM, at least 65 times in the last four years.
Second, the Raghubar Das govern- ment announced a policy in 2016 to settle the long-pending issue of identifying a “local”. The issue was complex and those who migrated to the state were treated as outsiders. The state government identified six parameters on which a person can be treated as a local, and it benefitted non-tribals settled in urban pockets of the state. “This helped us consolidate our support among these people, who were persecuted as ‘outsider’ ever since the creation of the state in 2000,” the aide said.
Third, the BJP feels it has brought development to the centre stage of political discourse, and that has helped the party race ahead of rivals in the state. “Das has rolled out several welfare programmes. If that clicks, the BJP can hope to be closer to its 2014 tally,” said Vidya Bhushan Mishra.
The BJP counts on what it describes as a positive response to welfare programmes, such as the recent decision to give ~5000 per acre to 2.2 million farmers. At least 5.7 million families have been enrolled under the Ayushman Bharat health insurance scheme in Jharkhand, and mobile ambulance facility has clicked in rural areas.
“Modi is the X-factor,” said former chief minister Arjun Munda of the BJP. “People’s faith in him remain intact and his pro-poor schemes will make a difference.”
Since the creation of the state in 2000, no chief minister has completed a full five-year term, but Das might be the first. He is also Jharkhand’s first non-tribal chief minister, and has helped the party consolidate its position among the nontribals.
“The Opposition lacks a face to mobilise support for the national elections. The BJP may find it difficult to repeat its 2014 performance, but it appears ahead of rivals at present,” Pal said. The BJP also feels it is much stronger than what it was in 2014, with the party’s organisation getting strengthened at every polling station.
The BJP’s campaign in Jharkhand has turned aggressive after the February 14 Pulwama terror attack, with ruling party leaders claiming that the nationalism narrative will add value to its campaign. “Nationalism is not a divisive agenda, and has better potential to unite voters. It will improve our chances across the state,” a BJP general secretary in Delhi said on condition of anonymity.
The Opposition does not agree. “People will vote for real issues; which is hunger, unemployment and land rights,” Soren said.