Jaan, Jahan: PM weighs lockdown call

2-WEEK EXTENSION? Health and economic concerns to be balanced while formulating response to the pandemic

days before the national lockdown is due to end, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India will have to strike a balance between “jaan” (lives) and “jahan” (the outside world) — a sign that the restrictions will continue in some form to preserve lives as it enforces social distancing, but with some relaxations to resume economic activity and preserve livelihoods.

In his third and most expansive interaction with chief ministers since the 21-day lockdown began on March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), Modi acknowledged on Saturday that many CMs suggested that the lockdown be extended for a fortnight, but did not make a categorical announcement on the issue.

However, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee claimed that the PM had agreed to extend the lockdown. Several states such as Odisha, Punjab and Mahrashtra have already taken state-specific decisions to extend the curbs.

A top government official said that the PM’s formulation meant that the government may move towards a “smart lockdown” — with severe restrictions in affected districts, and partial lifting of restrictions in unaffected districts, along with the opening up of some sectors to meet the economic challenge. A second official said that the government was also considering demarcating the country into three zones — red, yellow and green — depending on the scale of the

Covid-19 outbreak.

In the interaction, which spanned over four hours, Modi emphasised that he was available 24x7 to assist the states and that the next two to three weeks were critical in determining the impact of India’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 so far. He underlined the gravity of the global situation; said India has enough medicine supplies and was working to ensure adequate protective gear; condemned attacks on health care workers ; acknowledged the need to address economic concerns; and pointed to the possibility of converting the crisis into an opportunity to make India a “self-reliant” economic powerhouse.

The PM said that while announcing the lockdown, he had spoken of “jaan hai toh jahaan hai” — if one is alive, there is a world — but now, for a successful and prosperous India, it was time to move to “jaan bhi, jahaan bhi” — life also, world also. Several chief ministers, for their part, expressed the need to extend the lockdown, and offered a review of the situation in their respective states. The CMs placed emphasis on balancing lives and livelihoods, with some asking for a major economic package to tide over the crisis. They also flagged the need for more testing kits and personal protective equipment (PPEs) for health workers.

For the government, both at the central and state level, the situation clearly has posed a difficult choice. The demands of public health -- which dictate that an extension of the lockdown is the best way to control the spread of the disease — and the demands of the economy — which is in crisis with supply and demand shocks, closure of factory plants, business becoming unviable, loss of jobs and incomes — have to be reconciled.

It is understood that while senior officials are in agreement on the importance of the lockdown to save Indian lives, they also want economic activity to be revived, as ports are jammed with containers and major port cities such as Mumbai and Chennai are hit by the pandemic.

Before the interaction with the CMs, on Thursday and Friday, the PM held meetings with his key advisors and empowered committees set up to deal with the crisis. The participants included principal secretary PK Mishra, national security adviser Ajit Doval, principal advisor PK Sinha, cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba, NITI Aayog chief executive officer Amitabh Kant, and additional secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office AK Sharma. An official familiar with the proceedings of the meeting said that while everyone was in complete agreement that lives had to be saved, they also wanted economic activity to be revived

“The easiest call to make is to extend the lockdown, the toughest one is how to lift it so that India does not go into negative growth,” said a senior member of one of the empowered committees.

It was in these meetings that a proposal came up to demarcate the country into three zones — red zones to define districts and areas which have a high number of cases and will remain under a lockdown; yellow zones to define districts with a limited number of cases but which will be monitored and where limited movement will be allowed; green zones to define areas with no cases which may see greater normalcy, said the second official cited above who is familiar with the discussions. “Remember over 400 districts are not hit by the infection yet. One must also not forget that the harvesting season begins from April 14 and India is a largely agrarian economy ,” the official added.

To be sure, such a decision has not been taken -- but it is an indication of the various options being considered by the government. Explaining the possible meaning of the PM’s “jaan” and

“jahan” statement, a key economic ministry official familiar with discussions in the government said: “The government’s thinking is to continue the value chain under an insulated system for essential goods and services that are the lifeline of the nation. They are medicines, medical equipment, medical care, sanitation items, farm produce, processed food and groceries.”

The government is particularly focused on agriculture, with the PM telling the CMs that modifications in the Agricultural Market Produce Committee Act will enable the smoother sale of farm produce. Another official with an economic ministry said, “It is a challenge to implement social distancing and hygiene for agricultural workers. An ideal work model could be prepared soon by the agricultural ministry and the labour ministry in consultation with other stakeholders and states. Besides, a smooth logistical system — farm to fork — will also be required. The government agencies are working towards that.”

Another option discussed at the meeting of the PM with CMs was the idea of “lock-in” — where select factories would resume functioning, but workers would be under strict supervision and live within the factory complex in a sanitised environment.

Public health experts believe, however, that notwithstanding the economic argument, the lockdown is a necessity. NK Mehra, former dean of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, said, “The positivity rate of the Sars-CoV-2 virus infection as well as the number of deaths in India has seen a consistent rise in the last one week. Under the circumstance, an extension of the lockdown for at least another two weeks is critical to drive down the virus’s reproductive numbers. The country could otherwise pay a very heavy price if the disease enters stage three.”

Stage three refers to community transmission — which some experts believe India has already entered, an assertion the government rejects.

The CMs outlined their views in the meeting, with the expectation of support and concessions from the Centre. Punjab CM Amarinder Singh asked for special concessions for industry and agriculture sectors, reiterated the need for ramping up testing facilities, and expediting the supply of rapid test kits. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee asked the PM to spend at least 6% of the GDP to fight the crisis, and announce a National Economic and Health Package worth ₹10 lakh crore for the state governments. Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel suggested that state goverments be allowed to decide whether to carry out economic activities in their respective states. Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray spoke of the problems faced by the migrant workers. Telangana CM K Chandrashekhar Rao underlined how revenues in his state had dipped to 10% of what it was before the lockdown, making public finance situation precarious. Many CMs asked that contributions to CM Relief Fund — like contributions to the PM-Cares fund — should be considered a part of Corporate Social Responsibility expenditure of companies, while others asked for a relaxation on deficit limits provided under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act.