Mumbai on cyclone red alert
NISARGA PROGRESS Landfall expected in Maha, Gujarat coastline on June 3; heavy rainfall, flooding of low-lying areas likely in region
MUMBAI/NEWDELHI: Nisarga, a possible severe cyclonic storm that is expected to result from a depression forming in the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area will impact Mumbai city which may experience high speed winds and extremely heavy rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Monday as it issued a red alert for six other districts including Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Dhule, Nandurbar and Nashik between June 3 and 4.
Meanwhile, Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani presided over a high-power committee meeting on Monday to review the precautionary measures being taken by state and district administration for cyclone forecast likely to hit South Gujarat and Saurashtra regions on June 3.
According to the IMD bulletin, the system is expected to become a cyclonic storm by 11.30 am and a severe cyclonic storm by 5.30 pm on June 2. It is likely to make landfall by Wednesday afternoon. The wind speed is expected to be 105-115 kmph gusting to 125 kmph over east-central and northeast Arabian Sea along and off Maharashtra coast.
As per the current forecast, the region between Daman (near Gujarat) and Harihareshwar in Raigad — along the Konkan coastline, which encompasses Mumbai — as well as some inland districts of Maharashtra, stand to be affected. However, the next 48 hours may bring further changes to the forecast Sunitha Devi, in-charge of cyclones at the IMD, said. “The landfall is expected towards the south of Mumbai. Since the Arabian Sea system is dynamic there are a few predictability issues. There might be changes in the coming 48 hours depending on how the [weather] system moves,” she said.
“It will pass over this region as a severe cyclone but there is a marginal reduction in wind speed expected. Mumbai is likely to experience high speed winds as the cyclone makes landfall south of the city,” Devi said.
“We haven’t given an exact location of landfall yet. It will be shared as soon as reliable information is available but Mumbai will be impacted,” M Mohapatra, director general, IMD confirmed.
Scientists said Nisarga, likely to make landfall on June 3 afternoon could inundate low lying areas especially in cities like Mumbai and cause structural damage from falling trees and power poles. This has raised concern over how the city, already strained for healthcare resources on account of Covid-19, will cope. What’s more, each year monsoon brings the city to a halt as train lines, streets and drains get flooded leaving lakhs stranded.
A red alert — which indicates the possibility of extremely heavy rain of more than 204.5 mm — is a warning for residents to take action and keep safe from adverse impact. It has been sounded for seven districts including Mumbai for Wednesday, and additionally on Thursday for Palghar. An orange alert has been sounded for Mumbai and Thane for Thursday.
“The wind speed along with rough sea conditions in the landfall region will be capable of damaging weak structures such as huts, and thus affect poor people and fishermen who live on the coastline,” Akshay Deoras, independent meteorologist and doctoral researcher at the University of Reading, UK, said.
The experience of cyclone Amphan — which hit the Sunderbans on May 21 and left 86 dead as well as millions homeless — is still fresh in national memory. Mumbai is facing a severe healthcare infrastructure crunch as hospitals and care facilities are unable to cope with the high number of cases, which stood at 41,099 cases as on June 1. “Central and state agencies are trying to take all steps possible to prevent damage. We are advising fishermen in Maharashtra, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Gujarat, Goa, and Lakshadweep to avoid going to the sea till June 4. Those out at sea should return immediately,” Mohapatra said.
With the formation of two cyclones — in the Bay of Bengal (Amphan) and Arabian Sea (yet to be formed Cyclone Nisarga) — within two weeks of each other, scientists warn about possibility of more pre-monsoon cyclonic storms in coming years due to warmer ocean temperatures.
The IMD forecast also said that Gujarat’s coastal areas of Surat, Navsari, Valsad, Dangs and Bharuch, besides Daman, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts in Saurashtra may be affected.