IS THE GLOBAL CURVE RISING A 3RD TIME?

A third worldwide surge of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has started with the average daily new cases crossing the 110,000-mark in the last seven days — the highest ever. The latest wave is fuelled by a surge in cases in the new hot spot countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Mexico

1 WHAT UPENDED THE SECOND ‘FLATTENING’?

The first time the new case trajectory dropped globally was when the epidemic peaked in China towards the end of February and the virus was yet to grip the West. But then the pandemic spread to Europe and America, and a ‘second wave’ of new cases started mid-March. This wave flattened towards mid-April with average global new cases stagnating around the 80,000-mark. This flattening, however, was undone towards the end of May when the pandemic gripped two new regions – South America and Asia.

Even though new cases have dropped drastically in Europe and the US is only seeing the trailing end of its surge (averaging 22,000 new cases a day, as opposed to 30,000 two weeks ago), six nations — Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Mexico — started reporting a massive surge in new cases, pushing the global curve upwards again

2 SIX RISING TRAJECTORIES

New cases in six countries — Brazil, Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Mexico — have seen a drastic surge in the last two months. Brazil, for instance, has reported the highest number of new cases in the world two days in a row. India reported the third highest new cases (after Brazil and the US) on June 3, with Russia close on its heels. In the new case curves of the 20 worst-hit nations, we see that these six nations have upward trajectory, while the other top nations (particularly European countries) all have dropped.

3 6 NATIONS vs THE WORLD

At the start of April, these six countries were reporting a combined average of less than 2,000 new cases a day, while the US was reporting over 20,000 cases daily and the rest of the world around 43,000. By June 3, these numbers were 55,000 for the six nations, 22,000 for the US, with the rest of the world had 38,000 new cases, highlighting how these six nations have now become the global Covid-19 hotspots.