BJP Rajya Sabha tally set to get big boost

LUCKNOW: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to increase its Rajya Sabha (RS) tally. Based on numbers, it is comfortably placed to win the solitary by-poll to the Upper House of Parliament on September 11, notification for which was issued on Tuesday.

This by-poll was necessitated after the demise of the Samajwadi Party (SP) MP Amar Singh.

But the big push towards a BJP domination in RS - 164 is the two-third mark in the 245 member Upper House of Parliament would come in November, when tenure of 10 RS members from Uttar Pradesh ends, requiring fresh polls.

The BJP has 86 RS members at present and with support from allies its effective strength goes up to 113. UP sends 31 members to the Rajya Sabha, the highest across all states.

Sitting pretty with numbers, 305 MLAs at present in the 403member UP assembly with a current strength of 395, the BJP would be able to record 8 out of 10 straight wins and then attempt for an additional 9th in the November RS poll.

Rajya Sabha elections are based on proportional representation and single transferable vote which ensures that after first round, surplus votes get transferred to the remaining candidate in the second round.

“Rajya Sabha election is held on the basis of a complex equation, and as per the present strength of the UP assembly, the quota of votes that each member will need for an outright win in November will be around 37,” said Brij Bhushan Dubey, returning officer for the September 11 bye-poll.

In the UP assembly, after BJP with 305 MLAs, Samajwadi Party (SP) is the second biggest party with 48 MLAs, followed by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 18, Apna Dal, a BJP ally, with 9, Indian National Congress (INC) 7, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) 4, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) one and 3 independents.

“There are 8 vacancies in the

UP assembly and if the by-polls to these seats are held before November, the equation of votes required per candidate to win will increase slightly, and if not, then the numbers required for outright win should be around 37,” Dubey said.

Based on the present numbers – if UP assembly by-polls for 8 seats aren’t held till then – each party would require 37 votes for a straight win. On this basis, BJP with 305 MLAs (present strength) will be able to get eight of their candidates elected and would along with their allies like Apna Dal (9 MLAs), also make a bid for an additional ninth seat, party leaders say.

That’s because on their own, only the Samajwadi Party with 48 MLAs is in a position to get one of its candidate register a clear win.

But, it is the BJP, which after getting eight of its candidates elected would be left with 13 surplus votes and with nine MLAs of Apna Dal, it will have 22 surplus votes.

“There are several fence sitters in other parties,” a BJP leader said adding that some MLAs in ‘opposition’ ranks have already been talking pro-BJP.

The BJP leader didn’t name any particular MLA but several lawmakers like Rae Bareli MLAs Aditi Singh and Rakesh Singh have on occasions defied the party line. Rakesh Singh’s brother Dinesh Singh, a former Congress MLC, had contested unsuccessfully against Congress president Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareli in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Then there are MLAs like Nitin Agarwal, who is still an MLA on SP symbol but has since joined the BJP after his father Naresh Agarwal, revolted against SP for being denied a ticket in March RS polls. “The RS polls would give an indication of not just BJP’s political domination but also about how many ‘friends’ they have in other parties who could come to help them as they did in March 2018 RS polls, when despite joining hands, the opposition couldn’t ensure victory of their candidate,” said Irshad Ilmi, a political observer.