From the south, expect stronger opposition to the central government

With its resounding success, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala has overcome the fourdecade-old phenomenon of no ruling party returning to office in the state, which, in turn, had led to a system of rotational power-sharing between the Left and the Congress. The credit for this remarkable success should be attributed to the strong leadership of Pinarayi Vijayan and the cadrebased organisational strength of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM).

The Left government’s focused management of the Kerala floods and the Covid-19 crisis also led to a vote for stability and continuity.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) failed to meet popular expectations. Its state leaders appeared tired or reluctant or both, often mired in internal factional battles. The presence of Rahul Gandhi as a parliamentarian from the state, and as an active campaigner, was not enough to provide confidence to voters that the party could deliver. Its social alliance frayed, and it could not capitalise on its 2019 (Lok Sabha) success in the state. The Kerala election was also marked by the growing vote share and the expanding political space of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — because of its socio-religious agenda and communal articulation of politics in a state that is home to two large minorities, Muslims and Christians. Given the overall decline of the Congress at the national level, coupled with the absence of a strong state leadership, there is a possibility of a more direct Left-BJP battle in the future.

The core message from Kerala is that quality of leadership, cadre strength, political conviction, and the nature of governance are important factors that influence voter choices. Voters are willing to accord priority to competent performance and good governance, and reward incumbents for it, irrespective of past electoral patterns.

In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance will return to power after a decade. This victory is particularly significant for the party, for it is the first state election since DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi passed away. The DMK-led alliance won 38 out of 39 seats in the parliamentary elections in 2019, and success in the assembly polls has firmly established MK Stalin’s leadership credentials. The son has, finally, risen.

But there is another dimension to the choice in Tamil Nadu — it is consistent with the tradition of issue-based politics and advocacy of the rights of the state vis-à-vis the Centre. At a time when Delhi is seen as overbearing and encroaching on federal rights, this message acquires significance. The DMK’s success also reaffirms the role and influence of multiculturalism in national politics at a time when the ideas of secular, multicultural and plural India are under an organised challenge.

But while both pre-poll analysts and exit poll results predicted a landslide for the DMK and its allies, this did not happen. There is a message in the moderate electoral success of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led alliance — voters have acknowledged its performance in managing the Covid-19 crisis and implementing welfare measures during this difficult period.

The AIADMK has also seen both a crisis of leadership since the death of J Jayalalithaa, and a degree of fragmentation, including the formation of TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Katchi and VK Sasikala’s challenge, before she decided to sit out this election. But the AIADMK’s performance means that the outgoing chief minister, E Palaniswami’s claim of leadership remains strong, especially in coalition with the BJP. It also means that there is a potential for strong opposition in the state legislature that Stalin cannot ignore. At the national level, the success of the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the LDF in Kerala (and of the Trinamool in West Bengal) provides a ray of hope for the Opposition — at a time when the Congress is still reeling under a crisis of leadership. The results may also mark the beginning of the shift in the axis of Indian politics, with enhanced coordination of opposition parties across the country.