Covid wave ebbing in 9 regions, shows data
NEW DELHI : The second national wave of the Covid-19 outbreak continues to take a toll on India, but its trajectory appears to be receding in at least six regions – Delhi, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh – with cases and positivity rates seeing a steady drop in the past few weeks. Meanwhile, another three states – Bihar, Gujarat and Jharkhand – are exhibiting early signs of a plateau, according to data analysed by HT.
To be sure, despite the relative recovery, several of these states remain among the worsthit regions as districts there continue to report high volume of cases with respect to their populations. Districts in states such as Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are still seeing the highest rate of addition of new Covid-19 cases, and are likely facing most pressure on available resources, the data suggests.
To analyse the outbreak, HT analysed data from the past month (between April 11 and May 10) in India’s 20 most pop
states and Union territories, looking at two factors — new infections of Covid-19, and positivity rates. It also looked at district data compiled by How India Lives to narrow down on regions in the country where the virus remains most active.
The analysis shows that while the national wave may be yet to peak, and that daily cases continue to grow in most states, some regions have started turning the corner in their battle against the onslaught of India’s second Covid-19 wave with clearer results set to be visible in the coming weeks if these trends persist.
Experts say positivity rate is a crucial metric as it shows how widespread the virus is in the community. When coupled with increasing new cases, it indicates that the virus is spreading fast within the community. Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, the two states that were the earliest epicentres of the second wave, are both the only states that have seen their weekly average positivity rate decline over the past month. In Maharashtra, the figure went from 25.3% for the week ending April 11 to 20.8% for the week ending May 10 – a drop of 4.6 percentage points, the highest in the country. In Chhattisgarh, the figure went from 23.4% to 22.1% in the same time period. While this number did not improve over an entire month in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh, it has started dropping.
In Delhi, for instance, the average positivity rate has dropped 9.2 percentage points from a peak of 32.9%. In MP, it fell by 6.3 percentage points from a peak of 24%, while it fell 5.3 percentage points in UP from a peak of 16.8% and 1.7 percentage points in Telangana.
However, the national average of weekly positivity rate has shown only a minor improvement – it fell from 22.8% from 22.5% in the past month
During the Union health ministry’s weekly briefing on Tuesday, senior officials listed states where cases have shown a plateauing or declining trend – a majority of these states overlapped with HT’s findings. “A very recent trend has emerged where we can see marginal improvement in the country’s Covid-19 numbers in the past few days. We have noted a decline in new infections and deaths in the country in the past two-three days… and while this is too early to establish a clear trend, it is important that we analyse this and continue with our Covid management strategies on state and district levels to make sure numbers continue to go down,” said Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry.
Delhi has reported the most progress in terms of average weekly new cases per million population – average new cases dropped from a peak of 1,277 infections per million residents a day to 888. However, despite the improvement, the Capital remains among the regions reporting the most cases in the country when the population is factored in. Kerala (1,079 new cases per million in the last week) is the only region among those analysed that is seeing more infections in the last week. In Maharashtra, there have been 430 new cases per million in the past week, down from a peak of 536 cases per million around two weeks ago (week ending April 24). In Chhattisgarh, the recovery is particularly evident -- average cases fell from 543 new infeculous tions per million a day to 86 in the past two weeks.
In UP, the cases have halved on this metric, from 155 cases per million (week ending April 27) to 76 in the past week. In MP, average cases have dropped from a peak of 159 infections per million a day to 86, while in Telanagana the figure fell from a peak of 216 case per million to 117 in the last 10 days.
On average, there have been 291 new cases per million residents in the country for the week ending Monday. This number has only marginally shifted from peak levels (294 cases per million on Sunday). Population estimates for the analysis were based on 2020 projections by the Census of India.
Three other regions have started exhibiting signs of recovery. In Bihar, the positivity rate fell from a peak of 15.3% to 12.9% in the past week, while average new cases fell from a peak of 119 cases per million to 93. In Jharkhand, the corresponding figures changed from 16.8% to 5.6% and from 169 per million to 111. In Gujarat, these numbers were 9.2% and 4.8%, and 211 per million and 118. In these three states, however, the changes were all around the past week, so it may be too early to say the numbers are on a consistent decline.
At the district level, when looking at the number of new cases added on average per million population in the past week , of the 631 districts in the 2011 census (after merging Delhi and Goa districts), 19 reported over 1,000 cases per million per day on average in the week ending May 9, the latest date for which district-level data has been compiled by How India Lives.
Forty districts – 23 of them in Kerala (7 districts), Maharashtra (7), Karnataka (5), and Haryana (4) – reported 700 to 1,000 cases per million every day on average in the week ending May 9. Another 87 districts – over half of them in Maharashtra (13), Karnataka (12), Chhattisgarh (9), Andhra Pradesh (9), and Himachal Pradesh (7) – reported 400 to 700 cases per million.
IN UP, THE CASES HAVE HALVED ON THIS METRIC, FROM 155 CASES PER MILLION (WEEK ENDING APRIL 27) TO 76 IN THE PAST WEEK