Yaas approaches, navy, coastguard on standby
NEW DELHI: Cyclone Yaas will likely intensify into a “very severe cyclonic storm” and cross the Odisha and the West Bengal coasts on May 26, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned on Saturday, days after the strongest Arabian Sea storm in over two decades left a trail of destruction on the western coast and claimed dozens of lives at a barge off Mumbai.
The memories of Tauktae and the havoc wreaked by Amphan last year have prompted both the Centre and states likely to be affected by Yaas to enhance their vigilance and preparedness. The fact that the crossing of the cyclone, by current estimates, coincides with the spring tide (which could mean more storm surges) is worrying, according to experts.
A low-pressure area formed over the east-central Bay of Bengal and the adjoining north Andaman Sea on Saturday. “The low-pressure area is very likely to concentrate into a depression over east-central Bay of Bengal by tomorrow, the 23rd May morning. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards, intensify into a Cyclonic Storm by 24th May and further into a very severe cyclonic storm during the subsequent 24 hours,” IMD said.
While a low-pressure area is the first stage of the formation of a cyclone, not all low-pressure areas intensify into cyclonic storms. However, the possibility of Yaas’s further intensification into an “extremely severe cyclonic storm” (wind speed of 167-221kmph) cannot be ruled out, scientists said. Yaas is named by Oman and the word means a fragrant plant like jasmine.
An “extremely severe” cyclone, Tauktae, the most powerful one to barrel through the
region in over two decades, caused gusts of wind up to 210kmph and nine-metre-high waves as it raced past Mumbai and made landfall in Gujarat on Monday night. The havoc forced governments in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people in low-lying areas with at least 60 people losing their lives in storm-related incidents. The storm also sank a barge off the Mumbai coast, resulting in the deaths of 61 people so far.
“As on today the models are indicating that the cyclone will move towards and cross the West Bengal coast. It is, however, a large system and will definitely impact north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts. We still have five days so it’s too early to give exact details of its landfall,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge of
cyclones at IMD.
The National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC), headed by cabinet secretary Rajiv Gauba, met on Saturday to review preparedness for Cyclone Yaas in the Bay of Bengal, with the top bureaucrat directing various agencies to ensure safety of Covid-19 patients, hospitals and oxygen generation plants.
“Reviewing the preparedness of the central and state agencies, Gauba stressed that all measures should be taken in a timely manner so that loss of lives and destruction of property is minimised,” a statement released after the meeting said.
In view of the possible intensification of the low-pressure area, the Indian Navy has kept its ships and aircraft on standby for possible rescue and relief operations in West Bengal and Odisha.
The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) also deployed its teams in 11 districts of West Bengal on Saturday.
Apart from putting at least 14 of the state’s 30 districts on high alert in the wake of IMD’s forecast, the Odisha government has urged the Navy and the Indian Coast Guard to be prepared for the emerging situation. In West Bengal, district administrations, particularly in the coastal block and Sunderban islands, have already started strengthening the embankments that form the only barricade between the rivers and villages. Fishermen in West Bengal have been advised not to venture into the sea from May 23 evening till the storm passes, and those who are in deep sea have been told to return to the coast by May 23 morning.
Last year, a cyclone named Amphan pummelled south West Bengal and coastal Odisha, leaving at least 100 dead. IMD officials have said they cannot rule out the possibility that Yaas will intensify like Amphan.
Though Amphan impacted the same region last year, it commenced its journey as a lowpressure area over south Bay of Bengal; Yaas is over east-central Bay of Bengal. Both North and South 24 Parganas, which were devastated last by Amphan, are likely to be impacted again.
Large-scale evacuations in coastal areas in India and Bangladesh were carried out last year because of Amphan. Around 2.4 million people were displaced in India, mostly in West Bengal and Odisha, and 2.5 million in Bangladesh. While many returned soon afterwards, damage to more than 2.8 million homes resulted in homelessness and displacement for thousands, a World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) statement said.
“The sea surface temperatures over east-central Bay of Bengal are around 31 degrees C, 1-2 degree C above. Ocean heat potential is also high and all other conditions are favouring intensification. But its too early to say what shape it will take during landfall,” Devi said.
The low-pressure area is very likely to concentrate into a depression over east-central Bay of Bengal by May 23 morning. It is very likely move north-northwestwards, intensify into a cyclonic storm by May 24 and into a very severe cyclonic storm in 24 hours. It is likely to continue to move north-north-westwards, intensify further and reach North Bay of Bengal near West Bengal and adjoining north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts around May 26 morning.
Yaas is likely to cross West Bengal and adjoining north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts around May 26 evening. Over West Bengal, light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rain at isolated places is likely to commence over coastal districts from May 25, with significant increase in intensity subsequently, according to IMD. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on May
26. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to receive light to moderate rainfall at most places on May 26 and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places on May 27.
Light to moderate rainfall at many places, with heavy rainfall at isolated places is likely over north coastal Odisha on May 25 and over north Odisha on May
26. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on May 22 and 23; high to very high waves (wave height of 9-14 metres; wind speed of 38-63kmph) over major parts of central Bay of Bengal, north Bay of Bengal and along and off Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh coasts is likely between May 24 and 26.
Tidal waves of 1-2 metre height are very likely to inundate low-lying areas of Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 22 and 23. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into southeast and east central Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during May 22 to 24, into central Bay of Bengal from May 23 to 25 and into north Bay of Bengal and along and off West Bengal, Odisha, Bangladesh coasts from May 24 to 26.
The cyclone may also support the timely onset of monsoon over Kerala. “Formation of such systems just before monsoon aids in monsoon onset. Monsoonal flow or winds are strengthened over the Arabian Sea. Monsoon is likely to make onset over Kerala around May 31, 1-2 days here or there,” said Devi.
The April-May and the October-December periods are known to witness cyclones. Last May saw the formation of two cyclones – one in the Bay of Bengal (super cyclonic storm Amphan) and the other in the Arabian Sea (severe cyclonic storm Nisarga) – that hit the Indian coasts.