Covid-19: What you need to know today
India ended Sunday, May 23, with a total of 222,881 cases. The second wave of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic is definitely waning. The death toll remained high though (4,451 on May 23), but since deaths lag cases by around two weeks it will take some time for the number of daily deaths to start declining. What we are seeing now are deaths resulting from a time when the number of cases was still high (in absolute terms 220,000+ is high, but compared to the 400,000+ India was seeing not so long ago, it is a definite improvement). Just to put things in context, the seven-day average of daily cases rose from 373,321 on May 2 to 391,819 on May 9 (the highest the average reached) before it started falling (and pretty sharply at that), to 328,947 on May 16 and further to 255,198 on May 23. The corresponding seven-day averages of daily deaths were 3,394, 3,895, 4,037, and 4,190 respectively (the lag effect is evident here). It is likely that states where lockdowns are still in place (pretty much most states), will start removing them as early as next week. That’s much needed – lives and livelihoods will have to return to some degree of normalcy – but it’s important that both the states and the federal government do what needs to be done to prevent a third wave. The wise men in charge of the country’s Covid-19 response likely know all this already, but here’s a quick reminder of five things that will help stave off the third wave (or, at the least, lessen its intensity).
1. Continue with restrictions on movement and activities. While variants of the Sars-CoV-2 virus (including B.1.617, first sequenced in India, and which will likely soon be the dominant strain of the virus in most countries) were likely the main cause for the surge in cases India witnessed during the second wave, the fact that most states had completely opened up didn’t help. There were no restrictions on movement; nor were there limits on capacity (either in public transport or restaurants); many offices had reopened; and traffic in most parts of urban India was actually higher than it had been before the pandemic struck in early 2020 (understandable, because people were preferring to use private vehicles). That cannot happen again.
The reopening has to be phased and gradual – especially where closed spaces such as malls, multiplexes, and offices are concerned – with limits on capacity that will likely have to continue till at least the beginning of the third quarter of this financial year (October).
2. Avoid superspreader events. Another factor behind the second wave was a profusion of superspreader events: weddings, religious functions, and election rallies. Both the states and the Centre would do well to avoid these. For instance, farmers protesting three farm laws passed last September have called for a large nationwide protest on May 26. Many opposition parties have supported this. This is irresponsible – on the part of both the farmers and the parties. Similarly, there’s talk, after a meeting of education ministers on Sunday, of going ahead with the school-leaving exams for Class XII students after the end of the second wave (which means sometime in July). This, too, is reckless (especially because at least half of all Class XII students are under the age of 18, and not eligible for vaccination; and given the shortage of vaccines, there’s no guarantee that even the eligible ones have been vaccinated). Calling off the exams immediately, and grading these students on the basis of a formula that involves Class XI marks and internal assessment will end what has been a 15-month academic term for many, and kick-start the college admission process.
3. Get the vaccine drive back on track: Enough has been written on this. As of May 23, around 43 million Indians have been fully vaccinated and another 108 million have received one dose. That’s just around 16% of the eligible population (those over the age of 18 years). The federal government needs to approve more vaccines, work with vaccine makers to enhance supplies, and together with the states, arrive at a schedule of supply (by months) accurate to few hundred doses. This will allow states to plan (and prioritise) better.
4. Ensure accurate reporting of cases and deaths: There’s a simple rule to remember – if a state’s Covid-19 numbers look too good to be true, they probably are. Not recording positive cases (so as to show a low number of cases), and passing off Covid deaths as those from other diseases does not help anyone. Instead, by providing an inaccurate picture of the pandemic’s trajectory, it prevents epidemiologists and health experts from coming up with the right strategies.
5. Build stockpiles of key medicines; adopt triage: Even as they work on everything else, the federal government and the states will have to build stockpiles of key medicines (and oxygen). Unavailability of (or inaccessibility to) these were responsible for many of the deaths seen over the past month. It’s also becoming clear that states that used triage centres (Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, for example) managed to handle a high number of cases. States that didn’t use these during the second wave should use the lull in cases to create triage centres.