Yaas may intensify into very severe cyclonic storm: IMD

The deep depression over east-central Bay of Bengal intensified into a cyclonic storm, Yaas, on Monday morning, and is likely to intensify into a “severe cyclonic storm” by Monday night and a “very severe cyclonic storm” in the subsequent 24 hours, the India Meteorological Department has said.

Yaas (pronounced Yass) is likely to reach the north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Paradip and Sagar islands close to Balasore in Odisha on May 26 early morning as a “very severe cyclonic storm” with wind speeds of up to 166 km/hr. After crossing the coast in the afternoon, it will intensify further.

IMD earlier said that Yass would make landfall around Wednesday evening, but on Monday, it advanced the time. “Once Yaas intensifies into a ‘severe cyclone’, we expect its travel over the sea to be faster, which is why the time of landfall has been advanced,” said Sunitha Devi who tracks cyclones at IMD. She added that at the time of landfall, wind speed will be up to 165 km/hr, with gusts up to 185 km/hr.

Although oceanic and atmospheric conditions over Bay of Bengal are extremely favourable for intensification of Yaas, experts hope it won’t become an ‘extremely severe cyclone’ as it has formed relatively close to the coast and has less time to travel over the unusually warm sea. Matthew Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, had said on Sunday that north Bay of Bengal, where the cyclone is forming, is very warm with surface temperatures reaching up to 32 degree Celsius — 1-2 degrees above normal. “However, since the distance between the location of cyclogenesis and landfall is short, the cyclone won’t spend much time over the ocean. This will prevent it from intensifying into an extremely severe cyclone,” Koll had said.

But IMD scientists do not rule out the possibility of further intensification. But whether Yaas intensifies into an extremely severe cyclone or not, a lot of people are in harm’s way.

“Millions of people are in the path of Yaas as it barrels towards Odisha and West Bengal. These include coastal and river-side communities living in immediately floodable areas and vulnerable houses...” said Anshu Sharma, co-founder, Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society, an NGO. He expressed serious concern about these regionsstruggling with a high number of Covid cases, as that complicates evacuation and rescue operations.