IMD FORECASTS NORMAL RAIN IN THIS MONSOON

Monsoon rainfall, a key variable in the health of the rural economy, is likely to be normal at 101% of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its second-stage long-range forecast on Tuesday.

Northwest India is likely to record ‘normal’ rain at 92 to 108% of LPA; Central India is likely to record ‘above normal’ rain of over 106% of LPA; northeast India is likely to record ‘below normal’ rain at less than 95% of LPA.

NEW DELHI: Monsoon rainfall, a key variable in the health of the rural economy, is likely to be normal at 101% of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its second-stage long-range forecast on Tuesday. There is a 40% probability that is likely to be 96% to 104% of LPA, or the average rainfall (88cm) recorded from 1961 to 2010. In its first-stage monsoon forecast in April, IMD said the rainfall was likely to be 98% of LPA after two years of above-average rainfall.

The monsoon arrives first in Kerala around June 1. It is expected to cover the rest of the country by July 5. The monsoon onset has been delayed by two days, IMD said in its revised forecast on Sunday. IMD previously said that the start of the monsoon would be on May 31, a day ahead of schedule.

India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the fourmonth season that is crucial for the country’s farm-dependent economy and for rice, soybeans, and cotton cultivation.

A normal monsoon this year will significantly help the agriculture sector. Good rains have been a prime reason for the farm sector’s resilience for two years despite the pandemic. India has over 150 million farmers and nearly half of Indians are dependent on a farm-based income. Nearly 60% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation.

Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending. It impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. Ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy. The monsoon also replenishes 89 nationally important reservoirs critical for drinking and power generation.

M Mohapatra, IMD directorgeneral, said they use multimodel ensemble forecasting that considers projections from the best models and the forecasts are better and more accurate closer to monsoon.

“The first stage forecast was issued in April and then we monitored the conditions for entire May and found that monsoon is likely to normal and spatially well distributed,” he said.

Northwest India is likely to record normal rain at 92 to 108% of LPA. Central India may record above-normal rain of over 106% of LPA. Southern Peninsula is likely to record 93 to 107% while Northeast India may record below normal rain at less than 95% of LPA.

For the first time, IMD has issued a special monsoon forecast for the monsoon core zone stretching from Odisha to Maharashtra and Gujarat, where agriculture is largely rain-fed. In the monsoon core zone, rain is likely to be above normal over 106%. IMD said the monsoon is likely to be well distributed spatially across India. “Most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the season,” IMD said.

Normal to above normal rain is likely in June at 92% to 108% of LPA. The spatial distribution for June suggests above normal rainfall over most areas of eastern parts of central India, along the planes of the Himalayas and east India. Below normal probability is likely in northwest India, southern parts of the peninsula and some areas of northeast India.

IMD said La Niña conditions, which are associated in India with strong monsoon, above-average rains and colder winters, turned neutral in April end. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is neutral.

It is likely to last over the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the monsoon. ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate patterns. El Niño has a warming influence on global temperatures. In India, El Niño is associated with weak monsoon.