India in touch with Taliban factions for the first time

India has for the first time opened channels of communication with Afghan Taliban factions and leaders, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, against the backdrop of the rapid drawdown of US forces from Afghanistan, people with knowledge of the development have said.

The move marks a significant shift from New Delhi’s position of not engaging with the Afghan Taliban in any way and comes at a time when key world powers are veering round to the position that the Taliban will play some part in any future dispensation in Kabul. The outreach is largely being led by Indian security officials and has been limited to Taliban factions and leaders that are perceived as being “nationalist” or outside the sphere of influence of Pakistan and Iran, one of the people cited above said on condition of anonymity. The outreach has been underway for some months, though it continues to be exploratory in nature, the people said.

In the case of Mullah Baradar, the co-founder of the Afghan Taliban and one of the group’s main negotiators, the first person cited above said messages had been exchanged by the two sides though there was no confirmation of a meeting. There have also been conversations with other Taliban factions despite a lack of trust on both sides, the people said.

The outreach to Baradar is significant as he signed the deal with then US secretary of state Mike Pompeo in February 2020 that paved the way for the current withdrawal of American troops.

India is the largest regional contributor to Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development efforts with pledges of $3 billion but has lagged behind other regional players such as Russia, China and Iran in establishing contacts with the Taliban, largely because of the group’s long-standing links with the Pakistani military establishment.

“We have tried the earlier option of no engaging the Taliban and putting all our efforts into the Northern Alliance,” said a second person, referring to the united front created by Tajiks and other ethnic groups that was backed by India, Russia and Iran in its campaign against the former Taliban regime in the late 1990s.

“But there has been a huge shift since then and there are some who think it might be better to have a line of communication with some Taliban leaders,” the second person said. The people made it clear that India’s outreach didn’t include the Haqqani Network or members of the Quetta Shura, who are seen as proxies of the Pakistani military. There was no formal response from the external affairs ministry.

The people made it clear the outreach to Taliban leaders was proceeding in parallel with New Delhi’s engagement with segments of the Afghan leadership, including President Ashraf Ghani’s government and leaders such as former president Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah.

“However, it appears that some Taliban leaders realise that there will need to be some accommodation of India’s role in Afghanistan and such an understanding will also fit in with the Taliban’s efforts to project themselves as a group that the West can work with,” a third person said.

Sameer Patil, fellow for international security studies at Gateway House, said: “What’s certain is civil war and a Taliban takeover of Kabul in months, if not weeks, without a political settlement... It appears India is moving to protect its interests by opening a dialogue with the Taliban.”