1 NIBRI has gained 10 points in the last fortnight

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) jumped to 69.7 in the week ending June 6. To be sure, NIBRI bottomed out in the week ending May 23 itself when it fell to 60.3. It increased to 62.9 in the week ending May 30. The latest value of NIBRI is comparable to where it was in the week ending June 21, 2020. A NIBRI value of 100 indicates pre-pandemic level of economic activity.

The question to ask is whether NIBRI will take last year’s trajectory or grow at a faster pace.

“Near-term growth dynamics remain crucially contingent on two factors — the pace of relaxation of lockdowns and the pace of vaccinations. The former will determine the speed of recovery in mobility and broader economic activity, while the latter will be important for ensuring that the number of cases remains in check and the lockdown easing remains sustained”, said a note by Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi.