From US to EU, Asean to Pacific, challenges and opportunities for Quad
Three months after its virtual summit on March 12, the Quad — composed of the United States (US), India, Japan and Australia — is attaining greater consolidation, even as its challenges acquire a sharper edge. The coalescing of four maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific to address the China challenge compels global attention.
Quad has begun planning its first in-person summit, in Washington. The goal is to strengthen the “spirit of the Quad” (the title of the summit’s joint statement) through the expansion of partnership in vaccines, climate and technologies. Cooperation for infrastructure development, supply chain resilience and maritime security are also emerging as priorities.
In this context, four dimensions merit a close look.
First, India-US ties received a boost during external affairs minister S Jaishankar’s discussions in Washington in May. His interactions with key figures of the administration, Congress and corporate America focused on advancing cooperation in the fight against Covid-19, fine-tuning the strategy to deal with China, and deepening bilateral security, defence, and economic relations.
His meeting with the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, underlined the significance of intelligence-related cooperation in countering terrorism, the dynamic in Afghanistan after the US troop withdrawal, and China’s aggressive postures in eastern Ladakh and the Indian Ocean. These consultations have resulted in a closer convergence.
Second, the European dimension in the geopolitical matrix has assumed special significance. Leading European countries — France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands — have been working on their Indo-Pacific policies. This was followed by the European Union (EU) announcing its Indo-Pacific strategy in April. The EU is set to “reinforce its strategic focus, presence and action” in the region, based on the promotion of democracy, rule of law, human rights and freedom of navigation.
However, the EU made it clear that its IndoPacific strategy was “not anti-China.” India helped its own case with the historic India-EU Summit (May 8), aiming to expand its relationship with an important global player.
Third, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) dimension represents Quad’s vulnerability. Asean nations have been largely silent on Quad’s assertiveness. While China’s continuing aggression is ignored, Quad’s will to constrain it is seen as a new cold war. Despite provocations, Chinese measures are underplayed, partly out of fear and partly economic temptations. A major Asean grievance is the Joe Biden administration’s delay in connecting with Asean capitals at the highest levels. Another is Quad’s relative silence on Myanmar, even as Asean’s mediation has received support from China.
Four, the Pacific dimension goes beyond the US working with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines to enhance maritime security coordination concerning China. It relates to a promising turn for Quad.
Against the background of public differences on China between Australia and New Zealand, Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Jacinda Ardern held cordial discussions in Queenstown on May 31. A way forward to address the China challenge was crafted. In their joint statement, they expressed “serious concern” over developments in the South China Sea as well as human rights violations in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Beijing expressed its “firm opposition” to the joint statement.
Two policy suggestions may help. First, despite hostility towards Russia, the US administration needs to initiate a rapprochement with Moscow. The Biden-Vladimir Putin summit in Geneva on June 16 offers an opening. Will US policymakers remember how the Richard Nixon-Henry Kissinger team executed a strategic breakthrough in 1971, by weakening China’s alliance with the Soviet Union? Today, Russia needs to be weaned off China.
Second, Quad’s conflict with China is not only about maritime security and rule of law, but about economy and technology. A comprehensive plan is necessary for both facets.