Low-pressure area over Arabian Sea may slow monsoon progress
The Southwest Monsoon is likely to make its India onset around June 4 with model error of +/-4 days but the chances of a low-pressure area developing over the Arabian Sea around June 6-7 is dampening the outlook for the progress of monsoon after it lands in Kerala, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Thursday.
In a bulletin, IMD said that a cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the south-east Arabian Sea around June 5, and, under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region during the subsequent 48 hours. Officials cautioned that if the low-pressure system intensifies over the Arabian Sea, it could hamper the monsoon flow after its onset.
“Models are showing the likelihood of a low-pressure area development over the Arabian Sea around June 6. Everything will depend on the trajectory and intensity of that low-pressure system. Will it move towards the Indian coast or away from our coast? Models are indicating several different scenarios and we cannot announce anything over five days in advance. So, we have to wait and watch and issue a warning soon. If it forms and intensifies, there are high chances of monsoon progress being impacted.
There are chances that the low-pressure area intensifies into a cyclone and moves towards Oman,” said a senior IMD official. The normal date for monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1. But, this year IMD has forecast a marginally delayed onset on June 4.
The Southwest Monsoon further advanced into some parts of the South Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area, and some more parts of South Bay of Bengal and East-central Bay of Bengal on Thursday.
“We are expecting monsoon onset to happen around June 3, 4. But there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment on its progress. A low-pressure area is expected to develop over the Arabian Sea around June 6 or 7 which may intensify into a depression. There is no certainty if it will develop into a cyclone. Once it develops, all the moisture will be concentrated around the depression which will hamper further the progress of monsoon. There may be good rains around the west coast initially but the monsoon may not touch the interior areas till around June 10.