India Q1 smartphone sales point to $45 bn market in FY25
NEW DELHI: After enduring two consecutive years of a decline, India, the world’s second-largest smartphone market, is showing signs of a recovery.
The first quarter of the year has ushered in a wave of optimism, signalling a resurgence for brands, such as Samsung, Xiaomi and Vivo, with the industry witnessing an impressive 18% rise in market value, soaring to $9.5 billion—the highest first-quarter revenue in the past five years.
Despite the first quarter of a fiscal year being a relatively subdued period for sales historically, a consensus poll of four industry analysts by Mint, project a robust growth trajectory for the full year.
Forecasts indicate a potential 15% revenue surge, breaching the $45 billion mark in FY25, compared to $39 billion in the previous fiscal year. Interestingly, this bullish outlook is despite the market volumes, which is expected to remain flat compared to 2023 levels, with projections hovering at 151-155 million units.
On Thursday, Counterpoint India said in a report that smartphone sales recorded an 8% growth from a year earlier, with shipments likely surpassing 33.5 million units. While this marks an improvement over last year, it falls short of the market’s post-pandemic highs.
The driving force behind this revival is the rise in average selling prices (ASPs) of smartphones. According to Mint’s analyst consensus, the ASP stands at $295, or around ₹24,600—up 20% in the past two years.
This trend, hints at a premiumization of India’s smartphone market, after enduring eight consecutive quarters of stagnation.
Samsung, for instance, achieved its highest-ever ASP in India in Q4 FY24, reaching $425 (₹35,500). Despite ranking third in terms of volumes, the Korean firm claimed the top spot in overall market value, capturing 25% of the $9.5 billion revenue generated during this period.
Meanwhile, Apple, which does not rank in the top five in sales volumes, secured the second spot in revenue share, with a 19% share.
Email queries to Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi did not elicit any response till press time.
Pundits attributed this resurgence to a combination of of factors, including lucrative financing schemes, lack of compelling offerings in the low-price segments, increasing disposable incomes, and a strategic shift towards high-margin market strategies by leading brands.
According to Mint’s analyst panel, smartphones priced under ₹15,000 yielded a modest 4% margin for retailers.
In contrast, devices priced above ₹25,000 witnessed margins of 8%, potentially rising to 10% with brand incentives—a testament to the allure of premiumization driving India’s smartphone renaissance.