New Delhi can’t hope to repeat a Male in Colombo

It makes little sense to tag Mahinda Rajapaksa or any other Sri Lankan leader as either for or against India

Let’s convince ourselves that people are generally good, and they mean well. They like themselves to be thought highly of -- because they have good intents. As fellow humans, everyone is worthy of our empathy. They deserve love first and judgement second. That’s the gesture that we need to emulate for our own sake as well. We deserve to harbour feelings that bring positive energy out into the universe. We should have hearts that empathise, apologise, introspect, grow

As Sri Lanka’s political crisis deepens, the world’s eyes are not only on Colombo, but also on New Delhi. Given PM Narendra Modi’s emphasis on the neighbourhood, expectations are high for India to repeat its successful involvement to stall authoritarianism in the Maldives. Last week, former Maldivian President Maumoon Gayoom, did recognise that India was able to “exert pressure towards restoration of democracy”.

However, Sri Lanka is not the Maldives and New Delhi’s posture over the last two weeks has been marked by a wait and watch policy with a principled preference for democratic continuity. The Sri Lankan Supreme Court’s ruling and consequent reconvening of parliament this week mark a setback for President Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa’s attempts to grab power through extra constitutional means.

While this is a tactical victory for the rule of law in one of Asia’s oldest democracies, it will not resolve the root cause of the current political crisis. Instability will continue until elections are held. Ousted Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, may win the legal and parliamentary battle, the sentiment on the streets of Sri Lanka still favours the return of a grand alliance of Sinhala populism. While India will keep a restrained posture, two assessments dictate that Delhi must also prepare for Rajapaksa’s eventual return, in one way or the other.

First, the artificial Sirisena-wickremesinghe alliance of 2015 has found a natural death well before Sirisena’s loyalists defected two weeks ago. The president and PM’S increasingly hostile attempts to undermine each other have paralysed government and also affected bilateral relations with India. Going by Rajapaksa’s sweeping victory in the local elections and his new coalition with Sirisena, their joint consoli- and understand that all we control at the end of the day is ourselves — our own thoughts and actions.

We can’t ever control what others do; we can control only our response. And we have to remember this even when others hurt us, when they leave or betray us, when they cheat us, or they lie and steal. When the people we love break our hearts or don’t care to reciprocate our well-meaning actions, none of that is about us.

It’s easy to blame others, focusing on their action rather than our reaction, or focusing dation of power is expected to take place sooner or later, and one way or the other.

On paper, India has so far followed a principled position, appealing to all parties to respect “democratic values ...” But while it may silently seek to broker an immediate crisis resolution, it does not have a magic wand to freely determine outcomes in Sri Lanka. And it does not have the same leverage it had in the Maldives, where the balance of power on the streets favoured the opposition. This explains Delhi’s restrained posture. But if the crisis escalates over the next few weeks, it will likely favour holding fresh elections to settle the balance of power most likely favouring Sirisena and Rajapaksa.

Second, for all the simplistic labelling of Mahinda Rajapaksa as “pro-china,” the former Sri Lankan president has a proven track record of pursuing an “India first” policy in word and deed. Nowhere was his strategic acumen more apparent than during the final phase of the civil war (2006-2009), when he was able to earn India’s trust despite many challenges, including the Tamil Nadu factor and Chinese military assistance. And while it was Rajapaksa who sanctioned several deals that knocked Lanka into the Chinese debt trap, he only approached Beijing after New Delhi rejected his offers, including the Hambantota port now leased out to China for 99 years. This is why he succeeded in meeting Modi last September and thus rebuild the same bridge to India he had burned in 2014.

This does not mean that Rajapaksa is “pro-india”either.withchinaincreasingly involved in Sri Lanka, if and when he returns, he will seek to balance India and China to maximise the island’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean. But this time it will be significantly tougher to play off the two Asian giants. After the Wuhan summit, China is now adopting a more restrained posture in India’s traditional sphere of influence and more open to defer to Delhi in times of crisis. For New Delhi, this emphasises the importance of a deeper dialogue with China about South Asia’s third countries. At the same time, it makes little sense to tag Rajapaksa or any other Sri Lankan leader as either pro- or anti-india. Whatever the political dispensation in Colombo, it will always pursue a Sri Lanka first policy. India’s ability to counter China’s rising influence on the island will depend increasingly less on who holds the reigns on the island. India’s regional predominance in Sri Lanka and the region will hinge on its capacity to deliver more, better and faster on key connectivity projects and economic interdependence.

WHILE IT MAY SILENTLY SEEK TO BROKER AN IMMEDIATE CRISIS RESOLUTION IN THE BACKGROUND, INDIA DOES NOT HAVE A MAGIC WAND TO FREELY DETERMINE POLITICAL OUTCOMES IN SRI LANKA

on our reaction as nothing more than the knee-jerk emotion it made us feel. Of course, they’re responsible, too, but it’s not our domain to make them aware of this. All we have at the end of the day is our own truth — our actions, our thoughts and choices. And we have the power to either dwell on “what they did,” or choose to claim ownership and responsibility and resume our rightful power over our own lives.