50,000 cases and counting, quicker doubling a big worry

INFECTION RATE Mumbai, Delhi drive surge in tally; ‘test, trace, isolate’ remains cornerstone of control strategy

NEWDELHI: The number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in the country crossed 50,000 on Wednesday, nearly doubling over the course of 11 days, even as limited reopening of businesses made necessary by a sluggish economy triggered worries of another wave of the contagion across hot spots.

The spread of the infectious disease has largely been pushed by urban hot spots in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi, the three worst-hit states. On Wednesday, 3,490 new Covid-19 cases were diagnosed and 98 more deaths from the disease were reported, taking the total tally to 52,967 and fatalities to 1,711.

The latest 10,000 infections were recorded in three days, two fewer than it took for the tally to go from about 30,000 to 40,000. It took seven days for the cases to climb from 20,000 to 30,000. India recorded its first 10,000 Covid-19 cases in nearly 43 days, with a wave of infections beginning in March after three isolated cases were first reported in Kerala in January.

The disease’s doubling rate, which is defined as the average period it takes for a twofold rise, decreased from 11.5 days on May 3 – the cases hit 40,000 on that day – to 10.3 on Wednesday, the first time the figure has significantly reduced during the lockdown. The doubling rate -- which is calculated over a period of last seven days -- was four days at the beginning of April. Experts say the peak of the outbreak is yet to come. Some projections show the peak for the current wave of cases could hit in four-six weeks, with studies expecting another spurt in winter this year.

On Wednesday, the number of infections in Delhi rose to 5,532 after 428 new cases were reported. On average, India has reported 2,900 cases over the last five days. The corresponding numbers for the previous five days and those before that were 1,731 and 1,547. The data, which is based on official figures from states, shows that more than a third of the total cases have been reported over the past week.

Maharashtra reported 1,233 new cases and 34 more deaths during the day and its overall tally was 16,758. Of these, 10,527 cases – about a fifth of the national tally – have been reported in Mumbai alone. Union health minister Harsh Vardhan said he will hold a meeting with Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray to discuss the worsening situation in the state. “The situation in Maharashtra is certainly a matter of concern right now as 34 out of 36 districts are affected by Covid-19,” the minister said at a news briefing.