Covid-19: What you need to know today
In the beginning (I’ve always wanted to start a column thus), everyone thought the battle against the coronavirus disease would be a sprint. One 49-day long lockdown, or multiple weeks-long lockdowns interspersed with breaks for a few months, would flatten the curve, experts said. A post titled The Hammer and the Dance, detailing one such lockdownand-fight approach, went viral. The HT newsroom wrote up (and talked up) several research studies and papers that spoke of this. How wrong we all were.
The pandemic is now in its seventh month in India. A 68-day long lockdown (albeit, with some relaxations after three weeks) was imposed when the country had a few hundred cases. It now has over four million. And among large countries hit hard by the viral disease, it is the only one yet to see its peak (or even its first peak).
In the beginning, everyone was careful. People respected rules, wore masks, socially distanced themselves, didn’t venture out unless they had to (and when they did, the sensible ones wore gloves even if they made them look funny), asked the help not to come (the generous ones still paid them), stocked up, and stayed safe.
Even those who couldn’t afford to stay home did so — fear and the rules kept them there.
In the beginning — after a few missteps, most notably in the case of migrant workers left stranded in large cities without jobs, and in some cases, without homes — the central government was proactive. There were daily briefings by the health ministry, expert groups addressing various aspects of the pandemic, sincere efforts to acquire ventilators and PPE, regular interactions between the Prime Minister and chief ministers, addresses to the nation by the PM, and there was a general sense that we would overcome.
Things are opening up now, from a feeling that the infection fatality rate (see Dispatch 152 for more on this) is only around 0.1% in large cities; from the knowledge that masks, hand hygiene, and social distancing can prevent infections; but also from a sense of resignation, fatigue, desperation, and lack of any other options.
The opening can’t be driven by the confidence that the worst is behind us, simply because it isn’t. India is seeing the most cases in a day, and the most deaths, and no amount of spin about how many recoveries there are (there are bound to be, it’s simple math) or how low the fatality rate is (it is, but if we accept this cheerfully, we somehow seem to be suggesting that a thousand deaths a day is a price worth paying) can hide the fact that we are in the midst of a huge crisis.
It is a crisis that has wreaked havoc on lives and livelihoods — and transformed life, work, study, and play. Indeed, it has become so bad that many of us no longer even talk about the crisis — unfortunately, this includes those who should only be talking about it. The battle against Covid-19 is a marathon, and it is suddenly becoming clear that many may not have the mental stamina for it. Managing Covid-19 requires respect for science and data (don’t get me started on this); attention to detail; an understanding of cause, effect, and consequences; and a willingness to read, listen, assimilate and synthesise.
Policymakers and political leaders need this (the latter have, in the past, displayed tremendous physical and mental stamina for political work), and many have been found wanting. It still isn’t clear who is leading the fight against the disease in the country — when India crossed a million cases, Dispatch 108 recommended that the government appoint a Covid Commissioner to spearhead the country’s response, and also a data chief.
Health administrators need this stamina too — and many of them have also been found wanting. In hindsight, India’s testing strategy was wrong (it took till the end of last week for the Indian Council of Medical Research to even recommend when which test should be used); it didn’t trace aggressively enough; and even if the system of isolating the infected worked (it didn’t always), people let themselves down with their behaviour.
So, what should we do now?
Like a flagging marathoner, all of us need to refocus, and run on. To quote from the best book of running ever written (I may have referred to it before in this column): “You don’t become a runner by winning a morning workout. The only true way is to marshal the ferocity of your ambition over the course of many days, weeks, months, and (if you could finally come to accept it) years. The Trial of Miles; Miles of Trials.”