China’s Covid-19 plan isn’t good for anyone

China’s Covid-19 troubles may seem like an instance of poetic justice. After all, China is where Covid-19 originated under circumstances that are still not clear. And Beijing (with the deliberate or inadvertent assistance of the World Health Organization) sought to downplay the seriousness of the problem in the initial days. But it is difficult to not sympathise with the Chinese people who, apart from coping with a new wave of the pandemic, also have to suffer the effects of a repressive regime’s irrational and unscientific zero-Covid policy. It is too early to predict whether the protests will translate into a widespread movement against the government — but people have enough reason to be unhappy. There’s the pandemic, and the State’s response (lockdowns and quarantines) to it. There’s the real estate crisis (and its impact on the country’s banking system). And there’s the once-in-a-lifetime drought some parts of China experienced this summer.

The resurgence of Covid-19 in China — the official data shows around 32,000 cases, which means the actual tally is likely to be at least 10 times that — has been driven by the poor efficacy of Chinese vaccines, and the unwillingness of many elderly Chinese to get vaccinated. Opening up, the Chinese government reasons (and western scientists concur) would likely see a surge in deaths, which perhaps explains Beijing’s alacrity in declaring lockdowns. Better vaccines, and fewer restrictions would actually help (as they have in many countries, including India), but it is unlikely that China will be willing to accept its failure and seek help. Given the inter-connectedness of the modern world, and China’s importance in global supply chains, that isn’t good for anyone. India should keep a close eye on what’s happening.