THE POLITICAL FUTURE
Shaili Chopra’s book on politics in the age of social media, The Big Connect, looks at the emerging scene in India and at the impact that networks like Twitter and Facebook could have on the 2014 General Elections. An excerpt
Apolitical party or a politician trends on social media nearly every day. The… elections in 2014 have kept politics and leaders on their toes and making news. The Delhi elections of 2013 and the upsurge of the AAP in popularity charts validated the significant role social media plays in spreading information and influencing the final outcome… A study by Bangalore-based Simplify-360 found that 31 percent of Twitter users in India actually read a tweet on politics. The report also showed there was a five-fold increase in buzz in social media for Kejriwal after Delhi election win. It further suggested there is presence of 24 percent of Indian voters on social media which is a key factor in determining the poll results because 2.6 crore Indians read tweets related to elections.
Indian politicians such as Narendra Modi, Arvind Kejriwal, Shashi Tharoor and others have invested significantly in social media. Now all of them are squarely focused on using these as a key message-medium for elections.
Bhupendra Khanal from Simplify-360, in an interview with the author, says, ‘… Huge numbers of voters are participating in discussion in social channels, while impact may be bigger than this number as this population can influence votes of their families too. We expect at least 20 percent vote swing through Social Media in 2014.’
Undoubtedly, social media has given a voice to the common people… Additionally, news channels often pick stories that broke on social media… Since social media has also become a via-media to put news, views, and opinion on mainstream media — its effectiveness multiplies and makes social media important to election 2014.
A report by IAMAI and IRIS Knowledge Foundation shows that of India’s 543 constituencies, 160 can be termed as ‘high impact’— that is, they will most likely be influenced by social media in the next general elections. ‘In today’s India, the number of social media users to achieve this end has reached a tipping point. May be not in every one of the 543 constituencies but certainly in a significant number of them to warrant the conclusion that they have the power to influence elections and therefore government formation.’ As the report explains, high impact constituencies are those where the numbers of Facebook users are more than the margin of victory of the winner in the last Lok Sabha election, or where Facebook users account for over 10 percent of the voting population. The study then goes on to declare 67 constituencies as medium-impact, 60 as low-impact, and 256 as no-impact constituencies.
Social media has gone beyond just being a fight between people with different views to something more substantial. It has encompassed parties and politicians. The heightened interest in politics of those on Twitter led to massive attention to details by political parties on social media strategies. Rallies are getting live-tweeted and social media has become the primary source of informa- tion. Many programmes are live streamed on YouTube and politicians are conducting Google Hangouts to discuss strategies with NRIs and other political and business constituents. The expanding middle-class and web-savvy population sees online an extension of their candidates. Meena Yadav, a homemaker shares that social media is an extension of any political candidate… Talking of Modi, Meena shares ‘we can hear him speak anywhere in the country and can relate to different issues. I feel connected to him as I think he’s a strong man capable of taking very strong decisions and that’s what our country needs right now.’ Rajesh Lalwani of Blogworks admits such interest within the public at large in politics and society has forced more… leaders to embrace the Internet and accept its social norms. However, he warns, politicians… must be watchful of how they plan to use social media so that it doesn’t backfire. ‘… It’s not about creating fake accounts and getting fans. It is about… the sense of purpose, engagement, and transparency that leaders wish to bring about.’
There are several candidates using social media. Narendra Modi is banking on India272.com and NitiCentral and others to drive his campaign forward, backed by his own website NarendraModi.in. Additionally, Modi ensures the hashtags are well publicized through Twitter and Facebook pages to ensure his different speeches are made to trend. A combination of cartoons, infographics, and punchladen tweets are planned in the run-up to the campaign. Arvind Kejriwal (while Delhi Chief Minister and even as he was dethroned) campaigned on social media and answered media queries to justify his comments and decisions. His popularity had been pitched right against Modi’s as the PM candidate from Congress — not officially announced — is absent from social media. However Congress’ catch up and Rahul Gandhi’s new media blitzkrieg includes a dedicated budget and plan for social media through the Congress handle and that of its spokespersons.
…Meera Sanyal, who stood as an Independent in the 2009 elections and later joined AAP from Mumbai, admits that social media is influencing voters. ‘I believe so—especially in the group of voters below 25.’ As someone active on Twitter, she feels, ‘It is making it possible for the people to make their voice heard in real time. It is also a great equalizer—the barriers to sharing one’s opinions and being heard by large numbers of people are now lower than ever before.’
Rajesh Lalwani adds that social media ‘has also become important as the patterns of usage of the social medium by political parties and leaders are evolving. They are starting to understand the nature and value of this phenomenon better in terms of ability to engage citizens through conversations and the value of data that social conversations throw up. These help decipher mood, emerging and shifting themes, role of technology in scaling up, micro-targeting and so on.’
It’s hard to finitely deduce that social media led to higher voter turnout or a stronger verdict but the final analysis of elections in India is unlikely to be complete without social media pitching in… A computer screen may not be an electronic voting machine but it’s an indispensable tool in this age in urging people to eventually head there.