Fifth phase holds key to fate of alliances in Bihar
Muslims, EBCs and Dalits will influence outcome of this phase
PATNA: The fifth and final phase of polling for 57 assembly seats on Thursday will cap a bitterly fought election in Bihar where the narrative fluctuated from development to caste, job quota, beef, terror and black magic.
A better performance in this round across nine north and north-east districts will place either of the alliances (the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and the Grand Alliance (GA) of JD(U), RJD and Congress) ahead in the race for government formation in the state.
Both alliances are aware that four of the nine districts have a concentration of the Muslim voters varying from 45% to 70% while five have a sizeable population of EBCs and Dalits.
In 24 constituencies of Seemanchal re gion where Muslims are the largest chunk of voters, the GA is expected to enjoy an edge if the voting is guided by polarisation on communal lines.
But the presence of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in six Seemanchal seats is worrying the GA. If the Asaduddin Owaisi factor works, it will largely damage the GA’s poll prospects and eventually benefit the NDA.
The GA faces a bigger threat from the presence of the NCP candidates in 18 constituencies in Katihar, Purnia, Kishanganj, Araria and Darbhanga districts. In Katihar, NCP has fielded strong candidates in all the seven constituencies.
Besides AIMIM, the focus will also be on Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party in the Kosi belt. If the voting is done on caste lines, the GA can have the edge in 15 constituencies of Madhubani and Darbhanga districts of Mithilanchal and 13 constituencies of Kosi region.
In 2010, BJP had bagged 23 seats, JD(U) cornered 20 seats, RJD got eight, Congress won three, LJP wrested two and one seat went to an Independent candidate.
BJP has fielded a maximum of 38 candidates, while the LJP nominees are contesting 11 seats. RLSP has put up candidates in five constituencies and HAM-S in three. The JD(U) candidates are trying their luck in 25 seats, RJD in 20 and Congress 12.
The poll will decide the fate of senior minister Bijendra Prasad Yadav (Supaul), RJD legislature party leader Abdul Bari Siddiqui (Alinagar), minister Narendra Narayan Yadav (Alamnagar) and Lalu Prasad’s close aide Bhola Yadav (Bahadurpur).
A total of 15,543,594 electors are eligible to vote to decide the fate of 827 candidates, including 58 women. Polling will take place on 55 constituencies from 7am to 5pm except for two Maoistaf f ected constituencies of Simri Bhakhtiyar pur and Mahisi. Polling has been curtailed there by two hours, additional chief electoral officer R Lakshmanan said.
IN 2010, BJP HAD WON 23 SEATS, JD(U) 20, RJD 8, CONGRESS 3, LJP 2 AND ONE SEAT WENT TO AN INDEPENDENT IN THE FINAL PHASE OF POLLS