Six variables to shape T’gana poll results
HYDERABAD: Telangana, with over 28 million eligible voters, will go to poll today in 119 constituencies. It has a complex polity — the incumbent Telangana Rashtriya Samithi (TRS), the Maha Kootami led by the Congress and which includes Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Communist Party of India (CPI), and Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS), and two other important forces, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Here are the six variables which shape up the outcome of the elections, which will be declared on December 11.
KCR
This election revolves around the personality of the caretaker chief minister and TRS boss K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR). He led the political movement for Telangana and was rewarded for it in 2014. Since then, two things have happened. One, he has consolidated political power in himself and his family; become distant from the electorate; and is seen to have amassed wealth. Two, he has launched a slew of tremendously popular and innovative welfare schemes from monetary assistance to farmers to promises of housing. He is also seen to have provided electricity. Which version of KCR prevails for voters will matter in this election.
THE ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC
The Maha Kootami has an electoral advantage if you go by sheer numbers of the 2014 election. If the TRS had 34 percent vote share, the Congress and TDP combined vote share is 38 percent. In many constituencies, the votes of both parties exceed that of the TRS. Will the older TDP loyalists vote for Congress and will Congress supporters transfer their votes to TDP or the other constituents of the alliance? Will arithmetic prevail or will voter choices change?
THE MUSLIM VOTE
Muslims constitute 12 percent of the population. They exercise influence in close to two dozen constituencies. In the Muslimdominated pockets of Hyderabad, the AIMIM, or Majlis as it is called, is popular and it has decided to back the TRS. So any win for the Majlis boosts TRS especially if it is a hung assembly. But outside Hyderabad, the mood is mixed. While a section of Muslims cheer KCR’s schemes like Shaadi Mubarak (allowances for women for weddings), there is a substantial section that criticises him for not delivering on the promise of 12 percent reservation for the minorities. They also have loyalties to Congress and believe Rahul Gandhi’s assertion that TRS has a deal with BJP.
SUBNATIONALISM
Telangana is India’s newest state. It has come into being after a long struggle against Andhra Pradesh. The emotive factor has now subsided. But TDP’s active participation in the politics of the state changes things. Telangana has a big ‘settler’ population, those originally from Andhra. Will they back TDP? Or will they follow the lead of other Andhra parties like YSR Congress which have decided to stay neutral and, in effect, back TRS? More critically, the TRS has now used TDP’s re-entry to allege outsider interference and claim that there is a conspiracy by Andhra to regain control of Telangana. Will this put off the locals?
JOBS OR WELFARE
Congress has made a sharp campaign pitch against TRS for not creating jobs. It has promised over a lakh jobs in a year; it has also committed to over ₹3000 as unemployment allowance. The TRS rebuts the claims and points to its governance record on welfare. Across constituencies, among younger people in particular, the desire for government jobs, and the belief that the government has not delivered on this aspect is deep. How much will it hurt the incumbent?
ANTI-INCUMBENCY
The biggest challenge for TRS is the fact that its local legislators appear to be unpopular. It had 63 seats in the 2014 elections but managed to engineer enough defections to increase its strength to 90. Most of the former MLAs are recontesting. Will this local anti incumbency hurt the TRS or will KCR’s personality eventually offset this resentment? In sum, the Telangana election is about governance, identities and subnationalism. It is about personalities. It is about local and micro factors. Voters today will determine what matters to them most.