THE MAHA BATTLE
A look at the likely scenarios, the different equations and their effects in the Maharashtra political drama
If Devendra Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar combination manages to win a majority BJP
The party retains power in a major state like Maharashtra. Its success, despite the Shiv Sena breaking ranks, will add to its image of invincibility nationally. It will force other smaller partners of the NDA to think twice before they negotiate hard with the party. It will make a firm push to monopolise the Hindutva vote in Maharashtra, and by having a partner in Pawar, it will also help build bridges with the Marathas.
SHIV SENA
It will emerge as the biggest loser if the Fadnavis-Pawar combine works. It would have lost power at the Centre, lost the prospect of having a substantial element of ministerial berths under a possible BJP-led government in the state, and lost the prospect of installing its first CM in the state. Its ideological legacy will come under question for entering an alliance with the NCP and the Congress, and it will stare at the prospect of losing a section of its MLAs to the BJP.
CONGRESS
It will come across looking ideologically compromised, for having entertained the idea of supporting a Shiv Sena chief minister. And while paying a cost, yet it would have lost out on the benefit of accessing power in a resource-rich state like Maharashtra. The morale of its state leaders would dip substantially, there could be desertions, and the party leadership will have to face the flak for its delayed decision making.
NCP
There are two sub-plots here. If Ajit Pawar succeeds, despite Sharad Pawar’s opposition, and is able to keep a majority of MLAs with him, it will mark a major power shift within the party. It will also be a setback for Sharad Pawar and his daughter, Supriya Sule. Ajit will emerge as the inheritor of the NCP mantle. But if Sharad Pawar forms an alliance with the BJP, it will keep the party united; the entire Pawar family will get a chance to access power at the state formally and at the Centre informally.
If Ajit Pawar's rebellion fizzles out and Fadnavis government fails to win majority BJP
It will mark both a political and moral setback for the party. By keeping out of the process for three weeks, while allowing the Sena-NCP-Congress combine a chance to form the government, the BJP had gained moral high ground. But its decision to tie up with Ajit Pawar came at the cost of credibility — for it had accused Pawar relentlessly of corruption. It will lose power, it will lose credibility, it will cement the Sena-NCP-Congress unity further, and will be a big blow to Fadnavis’s career particularly. It will then gamble on political instability leading to a mid-term poll in which it could return to power.
SHIV SENA
Shiv Sena’s gamble of walking off from the NDA could possibly pay off. Fadnavis’s failure may open the doors for an alternative government. If all NCP MLAs consolidate behind Sharad Pawar, and Pawar continues to back Uddhav Thackeray, he can be the next chief minister. This will allow the Sena to carve its own space, distinct from the BJP and give Aaditya Thackeray a cushion to build his career while his party enjoys power.
CONGRESS
The party will breathe a sigh of relief. It will portray the BJP as having failed despite using various institutitions and tactics. It will get one more opportunity to back the Sena-led formation as a precursor to a broader anti-BJP front. If an alternative government is formed, it will help the party keep its state unit intact, generate resources for political campaigns elsewhere, and revive the morale of its cadre.
NCP
If the Fadnavis government falls because of Sharad Pawar’s firm opposition to Ajit Pawar’s decision, and NCP MLAs consolidate behind the elder Pawar, it will decisively show the veteran leader as in-charge of the party. It will once again burnish his credentials as the most astute leader of the state. His plot to keep the BJP out by weaning the Sena away could succeed. The entire episode will also clarify the party’s succession issue, for Supriya Sule could replace Ajit Pawar as the clear Number 2.