Jaya case: Why verdict holds high stakes for all

CHENNAI: Come Monday and judgment day will be upon not just former chief minister Jayalalithaa but the ruling AIADMK and the entire political spectrum of Tamil Nadu also.

At 11am on May 11, Justice CR Kumarasamy of the Karnataka high court is expected to rule on Jayalalithaa’s appeal in the disproportionate assets case.

Tamil Nadu is in pause mode with all eyes on the verdict on Monday. For, it will decide the fate not just of Jayalalithaa and her co-accused, but that of the other Dravidian behemoth, the DMK, and a beleaguered opposition in the state.

SCENARIO 1: If conviction is upheld by high court

“This will cause serious damage to the AIADMK if her conviction is upheld,” said C Lakshmanan, professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies.

“If the leader is unable to contest elections for 10 years, then it will be difficult for her to control cadre and party. It will amount to a huge setback for the AIADMK. It will be difficult to build the morale and spirit of cadres,” he said.

While the AIADMK refuses to speculate on the possibility of the conviction being upheld, the DMK is saying its own prayers.

“This government should go and a conviction will give the proper message to the people on corruption,” said KS Radhakrishnan, a spokesperson for the DMK. Analysts feel that

Her close aide Sasikala and Sasikala’s relatives Sudhakaran and Elavarasi too while the DMK will gain in this scenario, the party’s worries are not quite over.

SCENARIO 2: If acquitted There is consensus across party lines in the state that in case of an acquittal, Jayalalithaa will be back and how!

“It will be a big blow to all opposition parties,” said Lakshmanan. “It will be a nightmare for all of them. If Jayalalithaa is acquitted, AIADMK might have a cakewalk in the 2016 elections. The BJP may not be able to even imagine a hold in Tamil Nadu in their lifetime unless they completely surrender to Amma,” he said.

The AIADMK is hopeful of an acquittal – they want their Amma back in the chief minister’s seat as soon as possible. “We are very hopeful that there will be an acquittal,” said Rabi Bernard, an AIADMK Rajya Sabha MP.

(The writer is an independent journalist based in Chennai) were convicted in the case and fined `10 crore each. The conviction came after an 18-yearlong trial

Jayalalithaa, 67, had resigned as Tamil Nadu chief minister following her conviction

During the hearing of the appeal, Jayalalithaa contended that the then DMK government had deliberately overvalued her assets