Gujarat’s Muslims are isolated but remain connected to the Congress
both overt and subterranean in theaftermathofthe2002post-Godhra flare-up. “We’re taken for granted,” bemoaned Shafi Patel at Bharuch’s Varediya village: “Yet we aren’t upset with the Congress. We know they’re our well-wishers...” He and several others didn’t seem upset that Rahul Gandhi’s recent tour had stopovers at temples, not Muslims’ places of worship.
The reasoning Shafi gave is a fait accompli for a majority of Gujarati Muslims across Bharuch,Vadodara,Surat,Ahmedabad,Mehsana,MorbiandRajkot. Some accept the Congress’s soft Hindutvagrudgingly, others out of a sense of resignation. For most, the party’s their only option,barringafewaffluentsections that are expediently supportive of the BJP. There are around 300 Sunni Muslim familiesinBharuchwhoseindividual worth is believed to be over ₹100 crore. Having a large number of family members settled abroad, thesegroupsaretraditionalCongress backers.
One among them is Ali Bhai. He said that the only time he digressedfromtheCongresswas when he voted for VP Singh’s Janata Dal in the late eighties. The BJP has little or no support amongSurtiandBharuchiMuslims settled towards the north and south of Narmada river. In 2012, the saffron party swept the five seats in Bharuch without noticeable minority vote. The storywasreplicatedinVadodara where it pocketed all 10 seats.
Now the party might be hard placed to defend its record in either district. A host of factors, including resentment against sitting legislators, mayinfluence the outcome in Bharuch and Vadodara. Residents see signs of a contest rather than a walkover in the city whereModi contested and won by a five lakh margin in 2014.
Civic facilities are in a sorry stateinVadodara,whichtheBJP hadpromisedtoturnintoIndia’s Shanghai. “Peopleheresayleave alone Shanghai, return to us the citybuiltbySayajiraoGaekwad,” remarked a local scribe. He said the PM’s recent roadshow was a pale version of his past mobilisations. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi drew big crowds everywhere.
Thegameappearswideopenin the five rural seats where the BJP’s victory margins were small. A lot nevertheless will depend on whether or not the Congresscutsanacceptabledeal with Hardik Patel. The Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti is a factor despite it not having visible appeal in the area.
TheCongress’spointsofworry are many: its rickety party setup andlackofrobustfaces.Theyare the Achilles heel at which the BJP’sboundtoaimthearrow.Its quiver would overflow if the Opposition party’s alliance talks failwithHardikandsmalleroutfits such as the NCP. A crowded race is what the BJP desires.