MP by-election sets stage for 2018 polls
The Congress victory in the two by-polls in Madhya Pradesh has helped the party to set a positive narrative for the assembly polls at the end of the year in which chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will be seeking his fourth term.
The win in Kolaras and Mungaoli, coming in the backdrop of the Congress’ good performance in recent civil polls and win in the assembly by-poll last year, shows that Chouhan, who is facing a stronganti-incumbencyfactor,is beatable provided the faction-ridden Congress puts up a united fight. Although the Congress retained the two seats, the victory margin was much less than the last time.
In these bypolls, a united Congress has successfully taken on the much stronger BJP, like in Rajasthan, where the grand old party routed the BJP in three by-polls — Ajmer and Alwar Lok Sabha, Mangalgarh assembly.
In fact, Chouhan, with half of his cabinet ministers, was stationed in the two constituencies for a fortnight, addressing over 30 rallies and road-shows, turning the contest into a prestige issue between him and the Congress face for the polls — Jyotiraditya Scindia.
Chouhan sought just ‘5 months from people for development of 5 years’ in the two constituencies with a huge population of tribals and other backward classes (OBC). To sway the voters, he also included three legislators from the OBC communities into his cabinet a month ago in addition to announcing sops for them.
Statistically, the BJP had an edge as a study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies showed that in over 65% of the by-polls held since 1990s the ruling party candidate had won. But, on ground BJP lost to better campaign by the Congress, which questioned the BJP’s work for the last 15 years and its ‘apathy’ towards farmers, which clicked.
“It is defeat of Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the results clearly show anti-incumbency wave against the government,” said NK Singh, a Bhopal-based political analyst. “Recent results show that the BJP’s well-oiled election machinery is not working in Madhya Pradesh”.
Another analyst Girijashankar, who goes by his first name, however, blamed the arrogance of the state ministers for the debacle. “In Mungaoli and Kolaras, the voters didn’t like the arrogant behaviour of ministers which was reflected in the Election Commission’s warning to a minister and seeking explanation from another,” he said.
Chouhan told reporters that the BJP had put up a good fight in the by-polls. “We had lost these seats in 2013 assembly elections even when there was a BJP wave (in the state),” he said.
Though the Congress has set the narrative for 2018 it has not been able to breach BJP strongholds. In fact, the party has failed to recover the ground lost to the BJP in tribal and backward areas in previous elections.
NEW DELHI/BHOPAL: