Ahead of ’19, Oppn’s confusion turns voters cynical
as lackadaisical in taking forward seat-sharing talks with equally recalcitrant partners.
A senior leader of the Baujan Samaj Party (BSP) said, “The failure of the non-BJP parties to strike an alliance for the forthcoming elections in the neighbouring states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh has hugely impaired the opposition’s credibility to form a grand alliance ahead of the 2019 polls. It has instead triggered the TINA (there Is no alternative) factor in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”
An SP leader said, “Even if BSP president Mayawati had put up unreasonable demands for states going to the polls, the Congress could have done a package deal for assembly and general elections, trading off seats, giving her more in her stronger territory of Uttar Pradesh in lieu of states heading for polls in the year-end.”
Ironically, at a time when nonBJP parties should have cemented alliances, fragmentation is seen in their camps. The SP, one of the two prime regional parties in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP hopes to reap a bountiful harvest of Lok Sabha seats next year, has suffered a virtual split with former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav rebelling and raising an entity called Samajwadi Secular Morcha.
Shivpal’s Morcha has the support of the BJP, as indicated by enhanced security to the leader, prompt allotment of the bungalow vacated by Mayawati to him for his new office and withdrawal of a police case against his brother Mulayam Singh Yadav by an obliging government.
According to another veteran socialist leader from Allahabad, the unpalatable developments are reminding many of the 1960s when governments, formed by fragile alliances, frequently collapsed because of unending ego battles between l socialist stalwarts like Raj Narain, Ram Manohar Lohia, George Fernandes and Charan Singh.
A political observer said the opposition’s seriousness in forming a grand alliance against the NDA would have got a boost had the opposition parties displayed some flexibility in sharing seats for the upcoming assembly elections.
“Loss of states would harm their prospects in 2019 too,” said a political observer.
When Sinha had sounded a political alert, he knew that an alliance at the top level takes time to filter down to the ground level, especially when rival castes have a history of animosity.
Yadavs and Kurmis have not been best of friends in Bihar. Both Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United) had to toil hard to transfer their votes to their partners after they had buried their old enmity to form a grand alliance that later fell apart.
This is how it happened. The two leaders displayed great bonhomie; the Yadavs, who are often described as‘ ‘sarkari jati (government caste) for their clout as a voting bloc, had been feeling marginalised in state politics during the over decade-long coalition rule of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the BJP The community went with the alliance after Prasad told them it was a do or die time for them as well as the party; the Kurmis were satisfied with the chief minister’s post for Nitish Kumar. Prasad had himself propped up his name.
The scene is no different in Uttar Pradesh, where the Yadavs and Dalits have traditionally voted against each other. Their enmity had turned intense after the violent fall of the SP-BSP coalition government in 1995. The communities, feeling marginalised in the current dispensation, have decided to support the alliance, if it materialises. The canny BJP leadership has thrown a spanner in the works by propping up Shivpal Yadav while the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh , its ideological mentor, is busy wooing the Dalits .
Mere seat-sharing would not help till several rounds of meetings are held at the ground level. The question is: ‘Will Mayawati and Akhilesh hold joint meetings before the polls?’
Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Chaudhary Ajit Singh recently said the alliance will come through by December, which means the political parties and their candidates will barely get three months to canvass after burying the hatchet.
In the 2017 UP polls, the SP’s alliance with the Congress had failed for two reasons – firstly, the seat-sharing agreement was closed at the eleventh hour due to which the candidates remained uncertain about their tickets to contest elections, and secondly, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, failed to put up a joint fight.
As a result, the alliance between them failed to reach the grassroots while disgruntled candidates, who lost their election tickets because of the seatsharing pact, refused to throw their weight behind the poll partner. Each Lok Sabha constituency comprises of five assembly segments and confusion prevails about the seats that the partners would contest.
In the meantime, the BJP has launched its campaign, much ahead of the general elections.After all, slow and steady rarely wins the race in politics. Instead, those who have a head start eventually get the crown.