Technical fixes cannot curb rapid ecological change
Preventing the world from becoming hotter would require an overhaul of the global economy and society
The Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the implications of a 1.5°C rise in average global temperature, released recently, confirmed what we’ve known for years but ignored. Climate change from human-induced causes is accelerating and intensifying. Average global temperatures have risen about 1°C since the start of the Industrial Revolution and, the report says: “We are already seeing the consequences... through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes.”
Even if the temperature rise could be limited to the current level, these observed climate changes would not only continue but will intensify because of strong feedback loops. The Earth’s ecosystem is a dynamic one. A derangement in one variable feeds into derangement in another, causing a cascading series of changes throughout the ecosystem. Further temperature rise, even of 1.5 °C, may result in catastrophic and irreversible changes. I believe that the IPCC report is unusually optimistic in positing a relatively benign outcome with a 1.5 °C temperature rise. The report presents a striking example of impending disaster — at 1.5 °C temperature rise, 70-90% of coral reefs across the world would die. At 2 °C rise, none would be left. But is a loss of 70-90% of coral reefs somehow less of a disaster?
What has been happening with just a one degree temperature rise so far has been conveyed in stark terms in the report. What has not been spelt out clearly is that even if there were no further increases in temperature, there will still be rising intensity of the negative consequences, which we are already experiencing. A one degree hotter planet is not a steady state. True, as the report states, the planet will be less at risk with a 1.5 °C temperature rise than with a 2 °C rise but that deflects from the reality that we are already in deep trouble.
Why is a one degree hotter planet not a steady state? The answer lies in the dense interconnectedness of all life on Earth and the strong feedback loops which link the entire ecosystem. Global warming so far may have led to the loss of more than 40-50% of the coral reefs , but the damage does not stop there. The loss of corals affects marine life as they provide habitat for fish. Their loss makes coasts more vulnerable to wave erosion because they act as wave breakers. The loss of fish populations will have an impact on food security which, in turn, affects human health. All these then have second order effects which escape reckoning.
The report has pointed out that while average global temperature may rise by 1 °C, there are parts of the planet which are already past the 2 °C threshold. Arctic temperature has risen by 3 °C. This is not only leading to a loss of ice at an alarming rate but also affecting ocean currents, ocean chemistry and weather patterns. A warmer Arctic Ocean is leading to the steady loss of the ice sheets covering