Cong in MP, Raj; BJP in Chhattisgarh: Satta bazaar

Bookies operating in the satta (gambling) markets are predicting some interesting outcomes in elections to assemblies in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.

To be sure, Indian elections are tough to predict (as many elections that follow a first past the post method are, especially when there are more than two parties) and even psephologists get them wrong. Satta markets too, have got them wrong in the past. Still, the odds they offer are telling commentaries of sentiment, although this doesn’t always translate into outcomes.

Satta markets operate on local sentiments and may not reflect the ground situation.

“In the satta market, low price indicates victory while high price indicates defeat,” said a bookie based in Rajasthan’s Sikar town who asked not to be identified.

In Madhya Pradesh, the bookies, who spoke on condition of anonymity, say that while the Bharatiya Janata Party was a clear favourite in the beginning, there has been a swing in favour of the Congress, with the possibility of the latter even edging out the former. “As per the rates, it is a close race with the Congress slightly ahead at present. The prediction is the Congress will get 112-116 of the 230 assembly seats,” said one bookie who asked not to be named.

A second bookie agreed and said that this was a change from a month ago when the odds were on the BJP winning 130 seats. This person, who too asked not to be named, had no explanation for the shift.

In Chhattisgarh, the bookies predict a clear victory for the BJP. “Our prediction is that the BJP will win 42-43 seats and the Congress 36-37. The Ajit Jogi-led alliance will get seven seats,” said a Raipur-based satta market operator on condition of anonymity.

In Rajasthan, they say the Congress has lost some ground to the BJP but is still clearly ahead. And in Telangana, for all the talk of the Maha Kootami or Grand Alliance, they say the odds favour the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), although the CongressTDP-TJS grouping isn’t all that far behind. “Two months ago, the punters were giving the Congress 132-134 seats when it was a direct contest between the BJP and Congress. Now it has gone down to 118-122,” said a Sikar-based bookie who asked not to be named.

The bookies in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh said they are accepting bets at the level of constituencies and the entire state. The rates vary daily.

According to satta operators in Telangana, people are betting on the TRS returning to power. The mood has slightly changed in the past fortnight with the rates for the Congress-led grand alliance picking up,” said a Hyderabadbased bookie who asked not to be named.

This person, however, believes the TRS still has the edge

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