Analysts split over turnout indication
POLLING ANALYSIS Exit polls show Congress win; experts, however, say percentage point drop could swing either way JAIPUR:
Rajasthan saw a 74.21% voting which is one percentage point lower than 2013 when the voter turnout was 75.23%. Given the tight contest between the BJP and Congress, analysts are divided over the implication of the lower turnout though they are giving an edge to the Congress.
Prof Sanjay Lodha, who heads the political science department at the Mohanlal Sukhadia University in Udaipur, said while exit polls showed a Congress victory, they were not too reliable and the 1% vote could swing either way.
However he said some surveys undertaken by him in October and November had shown the Congress 4-5% ahead of the BJP.
Prof Om Janju from Hanumangarh said that the voting seemed to be against BJP. He said in the 11 seats in Ganganagar and Hanumangarh belt, BJP would be restricted to two or three seats while Congress would get a majority and independents and CPIM would also win one seat each.
Former CPIM MLA Amraram said the voting showed that BJP has been defeated while Congress is not winning with a big majority that it has projected. “It was only the Left that played the role of the opposition. Congress was playing the soft Hindutva card,” he said.
“It was the CPIM that took up issues of people whether on loan waiver, electricity for farmers, canal water and dalit issues and farmers and dalits have voted for us,” he said.
However, Dashrath Kumar, general secretary of the Hadoti Kisan Union felt the contest was close between the BJP and Congress. “Congress was not able to raise a strong farmers’ movement on their issues and so farmers have voted on the caste and party basis.”
BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat said that the party believed that the contest was a tight one and there were about 50 seats that could swing either way.
Going by the trend of the last five elections, governments have changed with a 1% lower voter turnout or 2% higher polling.
The 2003 polls saw a 4% rise in polling which was recorded at 67.18%. This jump saw the BJP winning 120 seats while Congress was reduced to 56.
In 2008, the poll percentage was 66.49, which was 0.69% less than the previous elections. This resulted in the BJP getting 78 seats while the Congress won 96.
2013 saw a strong Modi wave in which there was 9% more voting and the polling touched 75%. The BJP got its highest ever tally of 163 seats while the Congress fell to its lowest of 21 seats.
The overall voting trend this time has been lower in all regions of the state.
The Hadoti region comprises Kota, Bundi, Jhalawar and Baran districts. It is also seen as a BJP bastion. Chief minister Vasundhara Raje’s constituency Jhalrapatan also falls in Jhalawar and she has been winning the seat since the past three decades. This time she is pitted against former BJP leader Manvendra Singh, making this seat a high-profile contest.
In 2018, there was 74.76% polling in Kota (6 seats) as compared to 75.3% in 2013. Bundi (3 seats) saw 75.33% voting compared to 76.29% in 2013. Jhalawar (4 seats) saw 80.49% polling as against 80.63% in 2013 while Baran (3 seats) saw 78.58% voting against 78.35% in 2013.
Mewar comprising districts of Udaipur, Bhilwara, Rajsamand, Chittorgarh, Pratapgarh and the Vagad districts of Banswara and Dungarpur is considered the make or break region. The party that wins this region is said to form the government. The region saw 74.63% voting. In 2013 there was 77.15% polling.
Voting in Udaipur (8 seats) in 2018 was 70.98% against 74.02% in 2013. Bhilwara (7 seats) was at 73.4% against 76.89% in 2013. Rajsamand (4 seats) was at 70.98% (74.46% in 2013), Chittorgarh (5 seats) registered a high voting of 80.47 which was still lower than the 81.44% in 2013. Pratapgarh (2 seats) saw 79.93% voting (80.11 in 2013).
The tribal district of Dungarpur (4 seats) that had witnessed 71.81% voting in 2013 saw it fall to 68.68% in 2018. In Banswara, voting dropped from 81.66% in 2013 to 77.98% this time.
Marwar with the seven districts of Jodhpur, Pali, Sirohi, Jalore, Barmer, Jaisalmer and Nagaur is the largest region of the state and accounts for 43 seats, making it crucial to a win or loss. Marwar saw 71.87% polling.
Jodhpur (10 seats) saw 70.68% in 2018 as against 71.39% in 2013. Nagaur (10 seats) was 72.46% in 2018 and 73.23% in 2013, Pali (6 seats) was at 64.65% as against 66.23 last time, Sirohi (3 seats) had 67.44% polling as against 69.59% in 2013, Jalore (5 seats) was 68.53% in 2018 and 70.71 in 2013. Jaisalmer (2 seats) registered 85.26% voting in 2013 down to 83.65% this time. Barmer (7 seats) was at 75.68% as against 77.63% last time.
Bikana comprising Bikaner, Hanumangarh and Sriganganagar has 18 seats. Sriganganagar (6 seats) had 81.04% voting as against 83.93% last time. Hanumangarh (5 seats) was at 81.74% in 2018 lower than 84.94% in 2013. Bikaner (7 seats) had 73.89% polling against 75.64% last time. The region had 78.89% voting. It had witnessed 81.46% turnout last time.
In Shekhawati, Churu (6 seats) saw 73.85% polling this time against 77.29% in 2013. Jhunjhunu (7 seats) was at 72.24% against 73.86% last time and Sikar (8 seats) saw 72.71% while in 2013 it had 74.45% voter turnout. Overall, it saw 72.93% voting. In 2013, there was 75.13% voting.
Doondhad region has Jaipur, Tonk, Dausa and Sawai Madhoupr districts. The region had had 71.96% voting. In 2013, it saw 73.2% turnout.
Jaipur (19 seats) had 74.34% polling against 74.24 last time.
Ajmer with 8 seats saw 71.09% polling as against 74.11% in 2013.
Matsya has Alwar, Bharatpur, Dholpur and Karauli districts. In 2018, the polling was 71.8% while in 2013 it was 73.9%. Alwar had 74.16% voting, Bharatpur saw 71.11%, Dholpur 73.47% and Karauli saw a marginal drop at 68.78% this time .
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