3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY19 likely to be breached, say experts
NEWDELHI: Meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP for the current fiscal could be a challenge for the government, given the shortfall in GST collections, rising expenditure and slowing factory output, say experts.
Moreover, some populist announcements by the government to woo voters ahead of general elections would make the task of achieving the fiscal deficit target even more daunting.
Some of the experts have already projected that the fiscal deficit could rise to 3.5% of the GDP, more than the budget estimate of 3.3% of the GDP for the current fiscal.
The government’s fiscal deficit touched 114.8% of the full-year estimates at the end of November.
The government had budgeted fiscal deficit of ₹6.24 lakh crore, or 3.3% of the GDP, for FY19. Fiscal deficit for April-november stood at ₹7.16 lakh crore, or 114.8% of the target. It is slightly more than the 112% recorded in the same period last fiscal.
The pressure on government finances is mainly arising from indirect taxes and non-tax revenue side - particularly disinvestment.
“As a result of revenue shortfalls from GST collections, lower excise duty and below target disinvestment receipts, we expect the central government fiscal deficit target to slip to about 3.4% of GDP.
“Increased expenditure on subsidies or income transfers to farmers would make achieving the budgeted fiscal deficit target even more challenging, particularly given these revenue constraints,” Moody’s Investors Service vice president, Sovereign Risk Group William Foster told PTI.
Increased expenditure on farm loan waivers or other forms of subsidies would weigh further on government finances, he added.
Experts also feel that deviation from the targeted number for the second consecutive year in a row may not go well with the rating agencies.
As per India Ratings and Research, the slippage in central government’s fiscal deficit in 2018-19 is likely to be ₹39,900 crore.
“Fiscal deficit in FY19 is estimated to be ₹6.67 trillion as against the budgeted ₹6.24 trillion [FY18 (revised estimate): ₹5.92 trillion]. This translates into fiscal deficit/gdp of 3.5% for FY19 compared to the budgeted estimate of 3.3%. This means that FY19 will be the third consecutive year in which fiscal deficit/gdp will be 3.5%,” it said.
Crisil chief economist D K Joshi also pointed out that there is pressure on fiscal deficit even though there is some relief from crude oil front.
“If the revenue doesn’t match the expenditure, it would be a challenge to meet fiscal deficit target,” Joshi said.
Slowdown in revenue collection, moderation in factory output and tight liquidity situation are putting pressure on fiscal deficit, L&T Financial Services group chief economist Rupa Rege Nitsure said.