Hindustan Times ST (Jaipur)

‘With nationalis­m catching up, this poll offers exceptiona­l scenario’

- Sachin Saini sachin.saini@htlive.com

EXPERTS SPEAK Analysts say the party that wins preceding assembly polls normally performs well in parliament­ary election

JAIPUR: In Rajasthan politics, the slogan, Jai Jawan Jai Kisan, applies aptly to the Jaipur division because it is known for its farmers and soldiers. The division is also known for producing the most fertile political brains.

The Jaipur division comprises six parliament­ary constituen­cies – Jaipur-city, Jaipur-rural, Alwar, Jhunjhunu, Sikar and Dausa.

In the 2018 assembly elections, the Congress gained 78 seats to take its tally to 99 and emerge as the single largest party in Rajasthan. This was reversal from the 2013 assembly polls (BJP won 163), which is reflected in the numbers coming from the Shekhawati (Sikar and Jhunjhunu) and the Jaipur division. The Congress gained considerab­ly in this region in the 2018 assembly polls. The six parliament­ary constituen­cies in Jaipur division, comprises 50 assembly seats, of which at present 30 are with Congress, BJP (10), BSP (3) and Independen­t (7), which majority are Congress rebels.

Looking into the results of last four parliament elections (1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014) of these seats – Jaipur traditiona­lly being BJP fortress and is only thrice won by Congress since 1952; Jaipur-rural, constituen­cy came in existence in 2008 and is won once by both parties; Jhunjhunu thrice by Congress; Sikar thrice by BJP; Alwar twice by both parties (Congress won the seat in 2018 bypolls); and Dausa, twice by Congress, once by BJP and Independen­t.

Traditiona­lly, Congress is stronger in rural areas of the division. In the 2009 general election, Congress won five of the six parliament­ary seats in the division and won 20 of the 25 parliament­ary seats in the state. In the 2014 general election, riding on the Modi wave BJP swept the polls in Rajasthan winning all 25 parliament­ary seats including six in the Jaipur division.

Commenting in the backdrop of 2018 assembly poll results, political analyst Narayan Bareth said in the Shekhawati region, Congress reaped the benefits of the work done by the Left, be it farmer agitation and massive rallies, which created antiBJP sentiments and weakened the then state government. Since Congress and Left are traditiona­lly seen as farmer-friendly parties, voters looked at the party that could defeat BJP, he said. Alwar is a laboratory of Hindutva, where two incidents of lynching were witnessed, he said. Bareth said the recent developmen­t on the border will help the BJP. “Traditiona­lly, parliament­ary election calculatio­ns favour the sitting state government, which is of Congress, but when nationalis­m is overpoweri­ng (people’s sentiments), this becomes an exceptiona­l scenario (indicating at recent developmen­ts on the border),” said Bareth. “What is alarming for AS: Assembly segments Total

Behror Mundawar Kishangarh Bas Tijara

Ramgarh Rajgarh- Laxmangarh Alwar City Alwar Rural Total

Jhunjhunu Fatehpur Khetri Mandawa Pilani Surajgarh Udaipurwat­i Nawalgarh INC: SP:

BJP INC BJP INC BJP SP

BJP INC INC: Indian National Congress BSP: Bahujan Samaj Party INC: BSP:

INC INC INC INC BJP INC BSP BSP BJP: BJP:

Congress i s t he f orming of smaller parties such as Bharatiya Tribal Party,” he added. However, Congress is confident of good performanc­e. Congress vice president Archana Sharma said there had been vote deficit in last elections, which the party BJP: INC:

BJP BJP BJP BJP BJP NPEP

BJP BJP INC: BSP:

INC IND BSP IND BJP BJP BJP IND NPEP: BJP: IND: BJP: Bharatiya Janata Party SP: Samajwadi Party INC: IND:

IND BJP BSP BSP INC INC

BJP INC INC: BSP:

INC INC INC BJP INC BJP BSP INC

will win with developmen­t and schemes. “Congress is fulfilling its commitment­s in a time bound manner; the loan waiver, unemployme­nt allowance and many other promises have been fulfilled. We will fight the elections on developmen­t, while the BJP is IND: Independen­t LSWP: Loktantrik Samajwadi Party

NPEP: National People's Party CPM: Communist Party (Marxist)

Thanaghazi Bassi Bandikui Mahuwa Sikrai Dausa Chaksu Lalsot

Dhod Srimadhopu­r Khandela

Sikar Dantaramga­rh Chomu

Neem Ka Thana Lakshmanga­rh

BJP IND IND IND INC BSP BJP IND INC: CPM: CPM INC BJP INC CPM INC INC INC BJP:

BJP IND BJP BJP NPEP BJP BJP NPEP

counting on publicity, be it nationalis­m or religion,” she said.

BJP leader Mukesh Pareek said it is correct that Congress is ahead in number of MLAS, but the vote percentage difference between the two parties was INC:

BJP BJP BJP BJP INC BJP BJP INC BJP:

IND IND INC IND INC INC INC INC INC: IND: INC INC IND INC INC BJP INC INC

mere 0.5%. The margin of victory for the Congress was “very less”. “In 2014, people voted in the name of Narendra Modi, but this time with his name comes his work; the schemes and policies of centre have benefitted all the sections,” he said.

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 ?? HT FILE PHOTO ?? In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress won 78 seats from Jaipur division and emerged as the single largest party.
HT FILE PHOTO In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress won 78 seats from Jaipur division and emerged as the single largest party.
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