49.9%

and vote share in Uttar Pradesh 1993 and Gujarat 2002

Herein lies an important lesson on why even a favourable polarisation in terms of vote share might or might not work for a party in terms of seats. In a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, it is extremely difficult to predict change in seat shares for a given change in vote share. This can be seen from chart 2, which gives the ratio of percentage point change in seat shares for the Congress and the BJP for one percentage point change in vote share.

See chart 2: Ratio of change in seat share and vote share for Congress and BJP

Last, but not the least, is the question of what was the level of support which the BJP and its opponents had before the Pulwama terror attack. The electoral impact of polarisation and counter-polarisation, which might happen in the aftermath of Pulwama, will critically depend on these base levels.