Paris agreement won’t stop global warming, says report

NEWDELHI: The sixth Global Environment Outlook (GEO6) report warns policymakers that current nationally determined contributions (NDC) under Paris Agreement, 2015 are just a third of mitigation required to keep global temperatures below two degrees over pre-industrial levels.

“What this means is that even if we fulfil all the NDCS, the global temperature will still shoot up to 2.7 to 3 degrees Celsius, and with the United States withdrawing from the agreement, it will likely go beyond 3 degrees,” said Dr NH Ravindranath, professor at Centre for Sustainable Technologies at Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, and one of the contributors to the global report.

Last year, a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that an increase of 1.5 degrees over preindustrial levels would mean heat waves, heavy rainfall, extreme weather conditions, water shortage, reduced farm output, coral bleaching and sea level rise. With a two-degree rise, these risks would increase substantially. At the current pace of rise, the temperature target of 1.5 degrees is likely to be crossed between 2030 and 2052.

“The target of 2 degrees is likely to be crossed 10-15 years after that,” said Ravindranath.

To arrest the temperature rise well below two degrees, emissions need to drop between 40% and 70% globally between 2010 and 2050, falling to net zero by 2070, according to GEO6 report.

“The report presents a global perspective and the same is true for India. The outlook is bleak. What we are saying in the report is that we are not on track to achieve sustainable development goals. We have several global commitments and action plans at the national level but the translation to the local level is weak,” said Ravindranath. The report was presented for consideration and endorsement on Wednesday during the ongoing fourth UN environment assembly.