Monsoon may be below normal: Private agency
SKYMET PREDICTION Landfall likely to be three days late in Kerala; East, Central at risk
NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains are expected to hit the coast of Kerala on June 4 and deliver less rainfall than average this year, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Tuesday, dampening prospects of higher farm and economic growth in the $2.6 trillion economy.
Rains, the lifeblood for India’s farm-dependent economy, usually lash Kerala around June 1 and cover the whole country by mid-july. They retreat from Rajasthan by September. Timely rains trigger planting of crops such as rice, soybeans and cotton.
Skymet said monsoon will be “below normal”, and is likely to receive 93% rainfall of the long period average with an error margin of 5%. Monsoon is also likely to be “jerky” as its progression across India would not be smooth, it added.
The average or normal rainfall in the country is defined between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season.
“It seems that initial advancement of monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow. All four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall this season. Rainfall in east and north-east India and central parts will be poorer than north-west India and south peninsula,” Skymet chief executive officer (CEO) Jatin Singh said.
According to Skymet, there are 55% chances of a below normal rainfall, which will have an influence of El Nino, a phenomenon linked to the heating of
June 4
Monsoon rains are expected to hit the coast of Kerala
This year, the rainfall is expected to be below normal
Monsoon likely to be "jerky" and progression across India would not be smooth Rainfall India is likely to receive over the long period average Rainfall east and north-east India will get. This falls under the below normal category LPA rainfall north-west India, comprising all north states, will receive
Rainfall in Vidarbha, Marathwada, west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be "poorer than normal" Rainfall central India is likely to receive
RELIEF
Hilly states of J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi-ncr Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal at high risk too