Nature signals good monsoon for Rajasthan, says study
According to the traditional forecast system, less production of ker fruits and good production of ‘sangri’ on khejri indicate a good monsoon. ANIL KU CHHANGANI, Environmental science professor
At a time the India meteorological department (IMD) and private agency Skymet have said the 2021 southwest monsoon starting in June is expected to be normal, the study of an environment science professor in Bikaner has predicted a good monsoon this year for Rajasthan with the help of a traditional forecast system based on indications in the nature.
Professor Anil Kumar Chhangani, head of the department of environmental science at Maharaja Ganga Singh University in Bikaner, has been observing the traditional forecast system for the last 15 years. He has predicted a good monsoon this year on the basis of flowering of Thar desert plants and breeding of animals and birds.
“According to the traditional forecast system, less production of ker (capparis decidua) fruits and good production of ‘sangri’ on khejri (prosopis cineraria) indicate a good monsoon. Similarly, good flowering of neem, rohida and fog trees promises good monsoon,” Chhangani said.
On the basis of plant phenology and breeding pattern of animals and birds, monsoon activity is still gauged in the traditional forecast system in Rajasthan, he said.
Phenology is the study of cyclic and seasonal natural phenomena, especially in relation to climate and plant and animal life.
“This year house sparrow is breeding very well and most of the nests have three to four chicks, with a breeding success of 80 to 90% in Thar desert. This indicates good monsoon as well,” Chhangani said. He claimed that successful breeding of Hanuman langur and chinkara blackbuck in Thar desert this year is also an indication of a good monsoon.
Farmers in western Rajasthan have started preparations for sowing of kharif crops on the basis of such indications, he said. “Even the traditional forecast system based on the nature is known for its precision -- that is, whether the rainfall will be less, medium or heavy,” he claimed.
Farmers in rural Rajasthan also endorse the study of Chhangani. Dashrath Kumar, general secretary of Hadoti Kisan Union, said, “The modern weather forecast has a short history, but the traditional forecast system has a long history, which has been a great help for the farmers in this part of the country.”
Fatima Sultana, associate professor at the Government Janki Devi Bajaj Girls College in Kota, also stands by the claims of Chhangani.
“Birds and animals get indication from the nature about weather, which they reflect in their behaviour,” she said.
“Rats leaving holes and birds laying eggs at a height are indication of overwhelming rains,” Sultana said.
A good monsoon will mean another year of bumper farm production and cascading positive impact for the economy battling Covid-19 infections.