POSITIVITY RATE

feature among the regions that have seen positivity rate rise the most between May 7 and 17.

The analysis took the positivity rate data from the first week of May (week ending May 7) as the base for comparison as it was perhaps India’s worst week in terms of cases – the seven-day averages of positivity rate and daily infections both peaked around this time in the country. At the government’s Covid briefing on Tuesday, health ministry joint secretary Lav Agarwal said that daily cases have been declining since May 7.

All positivity rate figures mentioned here are seven-day averages as it evens out inaccuracies in testing over weekends.

A rising positivity rate in a region indicates that the virus is spreading fast within the community. As a rule of thumb, tracking a region’s positivity rate serves as a good barometer for whether cases are going to increase or decrease in the coming days: a rising positivity rate generally means cases will rise in the immediate future, while a dropping positivity rate tends to precede a drop in new infections.

Importantly, this trend has sustained without daily tests going down in the majority of the country. In fact, the number of daily tests in the country have increased 5% between May 7 and May 17 – on average, a total of 1,813,242 samples were tested every day in the country in the past week, against 1,724,665 on May 7.

Regions with best improvement

Delhi saw India’s biggest change in average positivity rate in the past 10 days – there was a 14.3 percentage point drop between May 7 and May 17 (from 27.4% to 13.1%). It was followed by Chhattisgarh, where the positivity rate dropped 13.2 percentage points, from 25.4% to 12.2% in the same time period, and Haryana, where it dropped 10.4 percentage points.

Goa features in the fourth spot in terms of most improved positivity rate (drop of 9.8 percentage points), but despite the drop, the state still has the highest positivity rate in the country. In the past week, more than a third (36.5%) of all samples tested in the state have returned positive for Covid-19. The coastal state has been in the news over the past two weeks due to severe shortage of hospital beds and medical oxygen resulting in dozens of deaths. But a drop in positivity rate offers the region some much-needed light at the end of the tunnel.

Other regions that have seen significant improvements in positivity rate are Jharkhand (a fall of 8 percentage points, from 15% to 7.0%), Bihar (down 7.5 percentage points, from 14.8% to 7.2%), Madhya Pradesh ( 19.3% to 12%), Maharashtra (down 6 percentage points from 21.7% to 15.6%) and Uttar Pradesh (down 6 points, from 11.9% to 5.9%). Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh are four of India’s five most populous states – together housing more than 40% of the country’s population.

This phenomenon is clearly reflected in the drastic reduction on the load on India’s health care system in these regions. Pleas for help on social media for life-saving resources like hospital beds, medicines, oxygen, even ambulances had become commonplace towards the peak of the outbreak in regions such as Delhi, Maharashtra and UP. Over the past 10 days, the shortage of supply in these regions have dropped.

Nagaland, meanwhile, is the only north-eastern state where positivity rate is dropping (down 0.9 percentage points, from 21.7% on May 7 to 20.8% on May 17).

States and UTS with rising transmission

A majority of India’s south and the northeast, meanwhile, is at the other end of the spectrum. In Meghalaya, the positivity rate rose from 11.1% to 17.7% between May 7 and May 17 – a rise of 6.7 percentage points, the highest in India. It was followed by Andhra Pradesh, where positivity rate jumped from 18.7% to 24.4% (up 5.8 percentage points), and Tamil Nadu (from 15.2% to 19.8%, up 4.7 percentage points). Manipur (14.2% to 18.3%) and Karnataka (28.4% to 32.4%) both saw positivity rate go up 4.1 percentage points. Sikkim and Karnataka registered the second and third highest positivity rate in the past week – 32.6% and 32.4% respectively. Sikkim has seen the sixth highest rise in positivity rate in the past 10 days – of 3.4 percentage points.

Other states with high positivity rate (and rising) are Kerala (up 0.4 percentage points to 26.9%) and Odisha (up 0.4% to 20.9%).

One state and two UTS – Mizoram, Lakshadweep and Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli – were excluded from the analysis due to unavailability of consistent testing data.

During health ministry’s weekly Covid-19 briefing on Tuesday, Niti Aayog member (health) VK Paul said, “We have to be very mindful that when we are achieving declining positivity rate it is because of the results of what we are doing and that cannot be slackened. We cannot again let this go out of hand again.”

“In many states the pandemic curve is stabilising, as a result of comprehensive efforts at containment, at testing, restrictions, and all the other efforts that people of those states are carrying out -- the states such as Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and so on,” he said. He added that there were still a few states where there continues to be concern such as Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, among others. “It is a mixed picture but there is overall stabilisation, and what we know from scientific analysis that the reproduction number (R0) is overall below 1 now,” said Paul.

Experts, however, say it is too early to let the guard down. “While most governments were reluctant to enforce lockdowns, it appears those measures are now starting to yield results... It is not a good time to celebrate decrease in numbers as we are dealing with an infectious disease and it is way too early to say which direction the spread is going to take, especially since the disease has reached rural and tribal areas where health infrastructure is weak and it won’t be able to test each and every individual there,” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research. dren, but they are worried about Singapore.” He added a few months back, a new strain was detected in London as well and despite several warnings, the Centre did not take necessary actions or measures in time because of which India is now facing a terrible situation.

It is rare for the external affairs ministry to acknowledge that an Indian envoy has been called in by the government of another country to lodge a protest, and also to publicly criticise an elected Indian official.

Hours after Kejriwal tweeted on Tuesday about the alleged new coronavirus strain in Singapore and asked the Centre to immediately suspend flights from that country, Singapore’s health ministry dismissed his assertions and said the variant prevalent in many Covid-19 cases in recent weeks was the “B.1.617.2 variant, which originated in India”.

“Singapore Government called in our High Commissioner today to convey strong objection to Delhi CM’S tweet on ‘Singapore variant’. High Commissioner clarified that Delhi CM had no competence to pronounce on Covid variants or civil aviation policy,” Bagchi tweeted.

Jaishankar tweeted that Singapore and India are solid partners in the fight against Covid-19. “However, irresponsible comments from those who should know better can damage longstanding partnerships. So, let me clarify – Delhi CM does not speak for India,” he added.

Earlier on Wednesday, Singapore foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan quoted Kejriwal’s original tweet and said: “Politicians should stick to facts! There is no ‘Singapore variant’.”

Singapore’s foreign ministry rejected what it said were “unfounded assertions” on social media by Kejriwal and expressed its disappointment “that a prominent political figure had failed to ascertain the facts before making such claims”. These concerns were conveyed to the Indian envoy, the ministry said.

Officials said the Singapore government had reacted so strongly because Kejriwal’s assertions had not gone down well with the people of Singapore.

KEJRIWAL