1/3rd of all K’taka Covid deaths reported in May this year: Data

BENGALURU Even as Karnataka continues to witness a decline in new Covid-19 cases, however, the rising daily death count indicates the severity of the second wave. According to the daily health bulletin data, the first 20 days of May accounted for over one-third or 34% of all the Covid deaths in the state since March last year.

While the BS Yediyurappa government is relying on the declining Covid numbers to suggest a recovery of sorts, the rising fatality rates in the state and in Bengaluru present a grim picture. Karnataka on Thursday recorded 28,869 new cases and 548 deaths with Bengaluru accounting for 9,409 cases and 289 deaths, according to the health bulletin.

Data shows that Karnataka recorded at least 8,336 Covid-19 deaths since May 1 out of the total 23,854 registered in the state since March last year.

According to experts, this is due to the “lag period” or the time when a patient is under the intensive care units (ICU) before succumbing to the virus.

“Deaths come 14 days after the infections are reported. So the deaths you are seeing now are patients from early May when we were at the peak. When infections come down, deaths will be high,” Dr V Ravi, neurovirologist and member of state’s technical advisory committee (TAC) said.

As per the data, the case fatality rate (CFR) in the state rose from 0.66% on May 1 to 1.35% on May 19, it shows. In Bengaluru, which accounts for the bulk of the state’s new infections and fatalities, CFR has increased from 0.41% between March 26 and April 1 to 1.77% between May 14 and May 20, according to data from the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP).

The government has been using the decline in positivity rate, which rose from 3.95% in the last week of March to 38.27% in the second week of May, to justify that the pandemic was finally subsiding. The positivity rate has come down from 38.27% between May 6-12 to 28.86% between May 13-19, data shows.

Though, there has been a lower number of daily infections, experts said that there is likely to be an increase in deaths. “As the infections come down, deaths will go up,” Ravi added.

The state government has enforced a lockdown till at least May 24 which is likely to get extended in a bid to control another spurt in infections , multiple people aware of the developments said.

Experts said the pattern in Karnataka follows that of Maharashtra and Delhi, where infections have seen a decline while other states that experienced the second wave will now witness a surge. “Even though the number of cases is expected to drop over the period of one to two weeks, at least in Bengaluru, the number of deaths will remain the same or may be a little more,” said Dr CN Manjunath, senior cardiologist and Director of Sri Jayadeva Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences and Research.

“Lot of sick patients are undergoing treatment in the ICU. Some of them will survive and some of them will succumb. Both (decline in infections and fatalities) will not synchronise.”