CYCLONE YAAS

warm ocean.

“The north Bay of Bengal where the cyclone is forming, is very warm, with the temperatures reaching up to 32 degrees Celsius, 1-2 degree Celsius above normal. The subsurface ocean heat content is also warm and conducive for the system to intensify into a cyclone. However, since the distance between the location of cyclogenesis and landfall is short, the cyclone won’t spend much time over the ocean. This will prevent it from intensifying to an extremely severe cyclone. In contrast, cyclone Tauktae spent several days in the Arabian Sea, drawing the energy in the form of heat and moisture from the warm waters below. We won’t see this happening for cyclone Yaas,” said Matthew Roxy Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

A comparatively shorter time over sea could prevent Yaas from intensifying into an extremely severe cyclone (wind speed of 167-221 kmph) or a super cyclone (over 222 kmph), said IMD scientists, even as they did not rule out the possibility of further intensification.

“Comparatively, its time over sea is less. Fani had formed over Andaman Sea, Amphan also formed towards south. After Aila, this is probably the first to be comparatively closer to coast. The landfall location of Yaas will be slightly to the west compared to Amphan which made landfall over Sunderbans,” said Sunitha Devi.

According to IMD, tidal waves reaching up to 4 metres are likely to inundate low lying coastal areas of Jhargram, south 24 Parganas, Medinipur, Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsighpur districts around the time of landfall.

“Our target is to ensure that not a single life is lost,” said Bankim Hazra, a minister in West Bengal, where more than 1,500 people have already been evacuated from a low-lying island.