Normal monsoon likely this year, forecasts IMD
Monsoon rainfall, a key variable in the health of the rural economy, is likely to be normal at 101% of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its second-stage long-range forecast on Tuesday. There is a 40% probability that is likely to be 96% to 104% of LPA, or the average rainfall (88cm) recorded from 1961 to 2010. In its first-stage monsoon forecast in April, IMD said the rainfall was likely to be 98% of LPA after two years of above-average rainfall.
The monsoon arrives first in Kerala around June 1. It is expected to cover the rest of the country by July 5. The monsoon onset has been delayed by two days, IMD said in its revised forecast on Sunday. IMD previously said that the start of the monsoon would be on May 31, a day ahead of schedule.
India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the fourmonth season that is crucial for the country’s farm-dependent economy and for rice, soybeans, and cotton cultivation. A normal monsoon this year will significantly help the agriculture sector. Good rains have been a prime reason for the farm sector’s resilience for two years despite the pandemic. India has over 150 million farmers and nearly half of Indians are dependent on a farm-based income. As much as 60% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation.
Agriculture is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. Ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy.
Nearly half of India’s population depends on a farm-based livelihood. The monsoon also replenishes 89 nationally important reservoirs critical for drinking and power generation.
M Mohapatra, IMD directorgeneral, said they use multimodel ensemble forecasting which considers projections from the best models and that the forecasts are better and more accurate closer to monsoon. “The first stage forecast was issued in April and then we monitored the conditions for entire May and found that monsoon is likely to normal and spatially well distributed,” he said.
Northwest India is likely to record normal rain at 92 to 108% of LPA. Central India is likely to record above-normal rain of over 106% of LPA. Southern Peninsula is likely to record between 93 to 107%. Northeast India is expected to record below normal rain at less than 95% of LPA.
For the first time, IMD has issued a special monsoon forecast for the monsoon core zone stretching from Odisha to Maha