KHARIF SOWING

The monsoon is critical for Asia’s third-largest economy, as half of the population depends on a farm-derived income. The rains also replenish more than 100 nationally important reservoirs, critical for drinking, power supply, and irrigation.

A good harvest drives up rural demand for goods and services, helping the economy grow.

The monsoon is one of the factors that also influence the Reserve Bank’s inflation forecast and monetary policy, which determines key interest rates.

In 2020-21, when India faced a recession due to the pandemic, agriculture was the only sector to post positive growth of about 3.1%. This helped to keep farm incomes steady. This year, robust farm incomes are critical too to cushion the impact of a devastating second wave of coronavirus infections. The share of agriculture in the country’s gross domestic product, a key measure of output, is nearly 17%.

Overall, the total area under crops till mid-july, when compared to normal area, was less by 3%, but some crops critical to keeping food prices low showed deficiencies. The normal area is an average of the area cultivated during the past five years.

As on July 16, 2021, the area under rice, a key driver of farm incomes, stood at 16 million hectare, which is near normal but 7% down from last year’s levels.

The area under pulses, a key driver of food inflation during periodic shortages, was 13% below normal at 7 million hectare. Compared to last year, the area under pulses is lower by 12%. Planting of coarse cereals like sorghum and pearl millet –